(*) FANALYTICS: Don't Reach for Speed
Mar 23 2013
Last year's top three major league leaders in home runs are currently going at average draft positions of 1, 12 and 26. Last year's top three major league leaders in stolen bases are currently going at average draft positions of 2, 217 and 313. Both categories have equal weight in Rotisserie. What's going on?
Forget that chicks dig the longball but home runs are sexier. In the 5x5 format, they contribute to four out of the five categories. Stolen bases? Just one category for sure, though they can be driven by batting average and can help pump up Runs. But still, hundreds of spots in the ADPs seem like a huge disconnect.
It is. But it also offers a potentially huge tactical advantage for savvy drafters.
Pitching continues to dominate in today's game. In the last two years, there were 80 starting pitchers who posted an ERA less than 3.50. In 2005-2006, there were half as many.
There are opposing trends between HRs and SBs. In the last two years, there were 17 batters who hit at least 35 HRs. In 2005-2006, there were more than twice as many. In the last two years, there were 98 players who stole at least 20 bases. In 2005-2006, there were only 62.
Home runs have become scarce. Steals have become more plentiful. So maybe we should be reaching for those power hitters.
Those ADP disconnects are real, and accurate. But they obscure the tactical advantage...
We don't have to reach for steals.
The highest ranked pure steals guys right now are players like José Reyes and Jacoby Ellsbury. They have ADPs in the 20s and 30s. Michael Bourn is going in the 70s. There are also several first-rounders who are being drafted high solely because they combine speed and power... Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gonzalez and of course, Mike Trout. If any of these guys did not rack up bags, they would be ranked lower.
But then there's Rajai Davis and Everth Cabrera, the #2 and #3 ranked players in steals last year—behind Trout—and the ones with ADPs of 313 and 217, respectively. Then you have Ben Revere at an ADP of 187, Carlos Gómez at 196, Brett Gardner at 208 and Emilio Bonafacio at 242. All these players are projected for at least 40 stolen bases. Grab two of them and you don't even have to think about reaching for steals in the early rounds. Risky guys like Kemp and CarGo become much less important. You can feel confident in going after the Giancarlo Stantons and Prince Fielders to boost the scarcer power numbers.
I know that many drafters do not like these one-trick-pony types but there are many ways to build a roster. Players who contribute in multiple categories are expensive but you should not have to overpay for their steals. Stolen bases are too plentiful right now. Buy the homers and troll the bargain basement for the bags.
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