FANALYTICS: A critical analysis of the first round

Based on the results of the last 10 years of Average Draft Position (ADP) rankings, 9-10 of this year's top 15 draft picks will fall short of earning first round value. This is huge, yet every year we are unable to improve our hit rate on a group of players one would think should be highly projectable.

Many analysts just rationalize this phenomenon. They say that the 15 players currently being drafted first are just the ones with the highest odds of earning first round value. Still, can we be happy with 36% odds? It's tough to relinquish the other 64% to the rest of field and be satisfied that we've done the best possible job.

I think a more critical look at the players at the top is warranted. We already know that the current ADPs are...

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