FANALYTICS: 2012 Mayberry Targets

A Reader's Digest recap... Despite all the advanced forecasting models out there, we do a pretty crappy job of projecting player stats. Rather than continuing to bang our heads against walls in quest of a level of precision we can never achieve, the Mayberry Method is designed to simplify our efforts. Mayberry embraces imprecision and invites the wide error bars into the planning process.

(If you want more than the RD recap, the full history of Mayberry is available here: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th parts of the 2010 introduction, and 2011 Improvements)

Mayberry constructs a 7-character rating for each player based on overall skill level. The last three characters in the MM rating are the player's Reliability Score. The first four...

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