STARTERS: BPV vs. LH/RH, 2019

Let's continue our one-split-away theme by moving on to lefty-righty skill splits of starting pitchers.

This analysis can help you find hidden skills before they blossom, which can especially be helpful when looking at young SP. It can also help you set your rotations based on the lineups your pitchers are facing.

First, the SP who own the best skills against RH bats:

150+ BPV vs. RH Bats*

Name                League  Throws  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
==================  ======  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
Burnes, Corbin          NL     RHP  0.8  14.8   2.7  44%  38%  44%   32%    32%  268
Scherzer, Max           NL     RHP  0.9  13.0   0.5  47%  34%  75%    7%    29%  233
Paddack, Chris          NL     RHP  1.1  12.5   1.1  36%  28%  86%   14%    30%  209
Cole, Gerrit            NL     RHP  1.5  12.6   1.5  43%  29%  72%   21%    33%  207
Carrasco, Carlos        AL     RHP  0.8  11.4   1.5  44%  39%  58%   18%    32%  206
Gaviglio, Sam           AL     RHP  0.7  10.5   2.8  47%  20%  50%   30%    31%  195
deGrom, Jacob           NL     RHP  1.3  11.8   1.0  41%  30%  68%   13%    30%  195
Sale, Chris             AL     LHP  2.2  13.1   1.4  41%  28%  67%   17%    32%  194
Marquez, German         NL     RHP  1.3  11.1   1.3  51%  36%  56%   19%    31%  193
Strasburg, Stephen      NL     RHP  1.3  10.6   0.7  54%  33%  72%   10%    33%  186
Lynn, Lance             AL     RHP  1.8  11.5   1.2  41%  35%  64%   15%    37%  177
Snell, Blake            AL     LHP  2.5  12.2   1.2  41%  30%  73%   16%    35%  172
Mahle, Tyler            NL     RHP  1.9  10.5   0.9  52%  32%  76%   18%    32%  168
Buehler, Walker         NL     RHP  0.7   9.7   1.0  35%  32%  64%   11%    32%  167
Bieber, Shane           AL     RHP  1.8  11.1   1.4  40%  29%  68%   15%    36%  167
Boyd, Matthew           AL     LHP  1.6  11.0   1.2  34%  32%  71%   12%    33%  167
Glasnow, Tyler          AL     RHP  1.7  10.2   0.7  46%  29%  79%    9%    33%  164
Woodruff, Brandon       NL     RHP  1.6  10.1   0.6  44%  29%  67%    8%    30%  161
Hill, Rich              NL     LHP  2.0  10.7   2.0  45%  30%  91%   25%    30%  160
Gray, Jon               NL     RHP  2.4  10.7   1.5  51%  34%  71%   25%    32%  157
Flaherty, Jack          NL     RHP  2.5  11.4   1.0  42%  29%  66%   16%    36%  156
Kershaw, Clayton        NL     LHP  0.9   8.3   1.4  50%  28%  77%   20%    33%  155
Peacock, Brad           AL     RHP  1.9   9.9   0.2  51%  24%  68%    3%    35%  154
Canning, Griffin        AL     RHP  0.8   9.0   1.2  35%  32%  57%    9%    36%  153
Gibson, Kyle            AL     RHP  2.5  10.7   1.1  48%  35%  76%   18%    36%  152
Ryu, Hyun-Jin           NL     LHP  0.7   8.0   0.6  49%  27%  92%    9%    33%  151
*min 20 IP

Next, the guys with the best skills vs. LH bats, keeping in mind that many SP have not reached our 20 IP threshold vs. LH bats yet:

100+ BPV vs. LH Bats*

Name                League  Throws  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
==================  ======  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
Cole, Gerrit            AL     RHP  2.8  15.1   1.7  42%  35%  71%   24%    34%  216
Verlander, Justin       AL     LHP  1.3  12.9   1.3  33%  15%  71%   15%    32%  208
Ryu, Hyun-Jin           NL     LHP  0.0   8.3   1.2  55%  22%  83%   18%    32%  183
Bumgarner, Madison      NL     LHP  1.7  11.6   1.3  40%  22%  85%   18%    32%  180
Glasnow, Tyler          AL     RHP  1.7  10.3   0.4  59%  27%  88%    8%    35%  176
German, Domingo         AL     RHP  1.3  10.3   1.5  33%  30%  69%   15%    33%  161
Gray, Sonny             NL     RHP  2.5  10.7   0.3  57%  26%  74%    6%    38%  159
Odorizzi, Jake          AL     RHP  3.0  12.8   0.7  29%  42%  89%    6%    34%  158
Greinke, Zack           NL     RHP  1.3   8.7   0.8  57%  23%  79%   18%    37%  156
Morton, Charlie         AL     RHP  3.6  12.4   1.0  47%  30%  66%   15%    36%  152
Montas, Frankie         AL     RHP  2.4  10.8   1.0  40%  39%  80%   10%    36%  147
Bieber, Shane           AL     RHP  3.0  11.3   2.4  42%  31%  79%   30%    36%  144
Hendricks, Kyle         NL     RHP  1.8  10.0   1.0  31%  36%  83%   10%    32%  142
Quintana, Jose          AL     LHP  1.3   8.0   0.0  53%  33%  64%    0%    35%  138
Weaver, Luke            NL     RHP  2.2   9.6   0.6  43%  33%  80%    7%    36%  135
Carrasco, Carlos        AL     RHP  2.5  10.4   2.5  33%  34%  82%   22%    34%  133
Giolito, Lucas          AL     RHP  1.8   9.4   0.9  34%  21%  73%   10%    33%  132
Strasburg, Stephen      NL     RHP  3.6  11.3   1.0  48%  25%  65%   16%    38%  132
Lopez, Jorge            AL     RHP  3.3  11.0   3.3  39%  42%  76%   35%    38%  126
Scherzer, Max           NL     RHP  3.4  11.1   0.8  39%  40%  78%    8%    34%  125
Buehler, Walker         NL     RHP  2.3   9.0   0.9  46%  24%  76%   12%    33%  123
Woodruff, Brandon       NL     RHP  3.8  11.3   1.3  41%  36%  70%   14%    37%  120
Stripling, Ross         NL     RHP  3.0   9.6   1.0  49%  29%  82%   15%    36%  119
Gibson, Kyle            AL     RHP  2.1   8.3   1.8  46%  32%  71%   24%    38%  118
Syndergaard, Noah       NL     RHP  1.5   7.8   0.4  40%  32%  61%    5%    31%  118
Canning, Griffin        AL     RHP  3.2  10.1   1.6  42%  18%  88%   16%    39%  114
McHugh, Collin          AL     RHP  4.1  11.1   2.1  47%  24%  52%   29%    38%  114
Berrios, Jose           AL     RHP  2.0   8.5   1.2  35%  29%  77%   11%    32%  113
Leake, Mike             AL     RHP  2.4   7.7   1.8  59%  30%  85%   23%    34%  111
Wheeler, Zack           NL     RHP  3.6  10.7   1.4  35%  31%  70%   12%    34%  109
Anderson, Chase         NL     RHP  1.9   8.3   1.1  31%  19%  81%   11%    36%  106
Castillo, Luis          NL     RHP  4.8  11.2   0.9  54%  29%  94%   17%    41%  103
Mahle, Tyler            NL     RHP  2.0   7.8   2.6  37%  32%  68%   21%    37%  103
Junis, Jakob            AL     RHP  3.1   8.8   1.8  49%  38%  64%   20%    38%  101
Lopez, Pablo            NL     RHP  2.5   7.8   1.1  50%  35%  74%   13%    36%  100
*min 20 IP

Finally, here are the SP with the widest skill splits when facing RH and LH bats:

BPV vs. RH/LH Bats*

Name                League  Throws  BPV vs. RH  BPV vs. LH  Diff
==================  ======  ======  ==========  ==========  ====
Roark, Tanner           NL     RHP     144          -23     +167
Chacin, Jhoulys         NL     RHP      71          -59     +130
Lopez, Reynaldo         AL     RHP     116          -13     +129
Arrieta, Jake           NL     RHP     114           -9     +123
Gray, Jon               NL     RHP     157           40     +117
Paddack, Chris          NL     RHP     209           94     +115
Richards, Trevor        NL     RHP     100          -13     +113
Wainwright, Adam        NL     RHP     103           -7     +110
Scherzer, Max           NL     RHP     233          125     +108
Lynn, Lance             AL     RHP     177           70     +107
Marquez, German         NL     RHP     193           90     +103
Flaherty, Jack          NL     RHP     156           55     +101
deGrom, Jacob           NL     RHP     195           94     +101
Porcello, Rick          AL     RHP     125           25     +100
Peacock, Brad           AL     RHP     154           59      +95
Jurado, Ariel           AL     RHP     141           45      +95
Davies, Zach            NL     RHP      97            7      +90
Alcantara, Sandy        NL     RHP      74          -13      +87
Mikolas, Miles          NL     RHP     134           47      +87
Bauer, Trevor           AL     RHP     121           39      +83
Bassitt, Chris          AL     RHP     134           51      +82
Bundy, Dylan            AL     RHP     128           46      +82
Maeda, Kenta            NL     RHP     133           55      +78
Eflin, Zach             NL     RHP     129           54      +75
----------------------------------------------------------------
Gray, Sonny             NL     RHP      69          159      -90
Verlander, Justin       AL     RHP     123          208      -85
Odorizzi, Jake          AL     RHP      79          158      -79
German, Domingo         AL     RHP      85          161      -76
Bumgarner, Madison      NL     LHP     106          180      -73
Lopez, Jorge            AL     RHP      54          126      -72
Quintana, Jose          AL     LHP      78          138      -60
Greinke, Zack           NL     RHP     113          156      -43
Leake, Mike             AL     RHP      77          111      -34
Hendricks, Kyle         NL     RHP     109          142      -33
Junis, Jakob            AL     RHP      69          101      -32
Ryu, Hyun-Jin           NL     LHP     151          183      -32
Musgrove, Joe           AL     RHP      70           98      -28
Morton, Charlie         AL     RHP     126          152      -26
Montas, Frankie         AL     RHP     122          147      -25
*min 20 IP vs. LH, RH bats

 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW) used to be a pitcher with some big holes in his toolbox against LH batters. He has put those struggles behind him. Both his stats (2.52 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) and skills (132 BPV) against lefties have been fantastic this season. He also has been dominant against RH hitters (2.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 138 BPV). Keep riding him.

Domingo German (RHP, NYY) is another arm with some untapped upside. Few right-handed pitchers have displayed better skills against LH bats than German: 10.3 Dom, 1.3 Ctl, 33% GB%, 161 BPV. That pinpoint control has eroded against RH batters: 9.3 Dom, 4.0 Ctl, 48% GB%, 85 BPV. There's more upside here.

Ariel Jurado (RHP, TEX) has put up some good overall numbers (3.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 42 IP). While his overall skills (91 BPV) are more average than impactful, Jurado has looked like a difference-maker against righty bats: 9.5 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 53% GB%, 141 BPV. He needs to find a strikeout pitch against lefties: 5.4 Dom, 2.9 Ctl, 49% GB%, 45 BPV.

Jorge Lopez (RHP, KC) seemingly doesn't have any value (6.75 ERA, 1.55 WHIP in 59 IP). He hasn't been good against righties (6.88 ERA in 34 IP), and his skills against them have barely been mediocre (54 BPV). Lopez hasn't been much better against lefties on the surface (6.57 ERA, 1.86 WHIP in 24 IP), but his skills against LH bats have been very good: 11.0 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 39% GB%, 126 BPV.

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP, CHW) is putting up some ugly surface stats (6.21 ERA, 1.61 WHIP in 75 IP). His upside is evident against right-handed batters: 9.6 Dom, 2.4 Ctl, 28% GB%, 116 BPV. A 34% H%, 57% S%, and 17% hr/f all have chipped away at his surface stats vR. He needs a complete overhaul against lefties though: 7.5 Dom, 5.8 Ctl, 31% GB%, -13 BPV.

Lance Lynn (RHP, TEX) traditionally has been a SP that struggles against lefties. That has been the case so far in 2019 (4.35 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 41 IP). His skills against them have been pretty mediocre: 7.8 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 39% GB%, 70 BPV. Lynn wouldn't appear to be any better against righties (4.43 ERA in 44 IP), but his skills against same-sided bats have been excellent: 11.5 Dom, 1.8 Ctl, 41% GB%, 177 BPV. Lynn has some value as an end-rotation arm in deep leagues against lefty-light lineups.

Frankie Montas (RHP, OAK) is one of the few young pitchers in the game that are really good against both lefties (147 BPV) and righties (122 BPV). He has been prone to some blowups against lefties, due in large part to a 39% H% vL. Once that regresses, the surface stats of Montas could improve further.
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Corbin Burnes (RHP, MIL) is the most skilled starting pitcher in the game against RH bats, and it's not even close. He has combined elite strikeout and walk rates against them: 14.8 Dom, 0.8 Ctl, 44% GB%, 268 BPV. A crazy 38% H%, 44% S%, and 32% hr/f vR have torpedoed his ERA against righty bats (6.46 ERA). There remains significant upside here, so if you have a bench spot available, Burnes makes for a great stash.

Pablo Lopez (RHP, MIA) has put up some very strong skills against RH bats: 9.9 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 46% GB%, 149 BPV. A tiny 48% S% vR is the reason he has a 4+ ERA against them. He has a more normalized 74% S% against LH bats, which has helped him generate a better ERA against them even though his skills vL haven't been quite as good (100 BPV).

Tyler Mahle (RHP, CIN) owns one of the largest LH-RH skill splits in the game. Against same-sided bats, he's one of the best in the game: 3.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 168 BPV. Lefty bats have torched him (5.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP). But there's hope, since his skills against them haven't been bad: 7.8 Dom, 2.0 Ctl, 37% GB%, 103 BPV.

Miles Mikolas (RHP, STL) is another pitcher that you probably want to sit against lefty-leaning lineups. He has generated an ugly 6.25 ERA and 1.61 WHIP against them. His rough skills vs. LHers have been the culprit: 6.5 Dom, 3.4 Ctl, 44% GB%, 47 BPV. His elite command profile comes out against RH bats: 6.6 Dom, 0.6 Ctl, 54% GB%, 134 BPV.

Chris Paddack (RHP, SD) is one of the game's best pitchers against RH bats. He has an elite 1.99 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in 31 IP against them, along with firmly elite skills: 12.5 Dom, 1.1 Ctl, 36% GB%, 209 BPV. All of his struggles have come against lefties (4.24 ERA in 34 IP), as his skills haven't been nearly as good against them (94 BPV).

Brandon Woodruff (RHP, MIL) has been lethal against RH bats so far in 2019. He has posted a 3.18 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 45 IP against them, marks that have full support from his underlying skills: 10.1 Dom, 1.6 Ctl, 44% GB%, 161 BPV. His stats tank against lefty bats (4.75 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 36 IP), but much of that is due to an inflated 36% H%. His skills vs. LH are very strong: 11.3 Dom, 3.8 Ctl, 41% GB%, 120 BPV. Woodruff's elevated control vL is the result of a 37% ball%, compared to a 30% ball% vs. RHers. There's more upside here if he can throw more strikes against lefties.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.