STARTERS: BPV home/road, 2019 updated

Our research six years ago confirmed that ERA, WHIP, win percentage, BPV, Dom (K/9), and Ctl (BB/9) all had significant home/road performance variances.

Through mid-2019, that trend has held to form at the MLB level:

Home Stats & Skills: 2010-2019 YTD*

Year  League  ERA   WHIP  Win %  Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
====  ======  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
2010      AL  3.87  1.30   .558  3.1  6.9   1.0  44%  29%  73%    9%    37%   63
2011      AL  4.02  1.31   .534  3.0  7.0   1.0  45%  30%  72%   11%    36%   68
2012      AL  3.90  1.27   .534  2.9  7.6   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    36%   80
2013      AL  3.95  1.30   .533  3.0  7.8   1.0  43%  30%  73%   11%    36%   82
2014      AL  3.79  1.26   .519  2.8  7.7   0.9  44%  30%  72%    9%    36%   85
2015      AL  3.79  1.24   .543  2.7  7.7   1.0  44%  29%  73%   11%    36%   87          
2016      AL  4.06  1.29   .544  2.9  8.1   1.2  44%  30%  73%   13%    36%   92
2017      AL  4.17  1.29   .537  3.1  8.4   1.3  43%  30%  72%   14%    37%   89
2018      AL  4.11  1.27   .530  3.0  8.5   1.2  42%  30%  72%   13%    36%   93
2019**    AL  4.53  1.34   .500  3.4  8.8   1.5  42%  30%  71%   15%    37%   88
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010      NL  3.77  1.30   .560  3.2  7.6   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    37%   74
2011      NL  3.65  1.27   .519  2.9  7.4   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   77
2012      NL  3.76  1.27   .532  2.9  7.8   1.0  46%  30%  73%   11%    36%   86
2013      NL  3.55  1.24   .543  2.8  7.6   0.9  46%  30%  74%   12%    36%   86
2014      NL  3.43  1.22   .541  2.8  8.0   0.8  46%  30%  74%   10%    36%   93
2015      NL  3.74  1.27   .540  2.8  8.0   1.0  47%  31%  73%   11%    36%   93
2016      NL  3.98  1.29   .516  3.1  8.3   1.1  45%  30%  72%   12%    36%   89
2017      NL  4.10  1.31   .542  3.3  8.4   1.2  46%  30%  72%   13%    36%   87
2018      NL  3.85  1.28   .525  3.2  8.7   1.1  44%  30%  73%   13%    36%   92
2019**    NL  4.16  1.28   .553  3.1  8.9   2.9  45%  30%  72%   14%    36%   98
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010     MLB  3.82  1.30   .559  3.1  7.3   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    37%   69
2011     MLB  3.82  1.28   .526  3.0  7.2   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   72
2012     MLB  3.83  1.30   .533  3.1  7.3   0.9  46%  30%  73%   11%    36%   70
2013     MLB  3.75  1.27   .538  2.9  7.7   1.0  45%  30%  73%   11%    36%   84
2014     MLB  3.61  1.24   .530  2.8  7.8   0.8  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   89
2015     MLB  3.77  1.25   .541  2.8  7.9   1.0  45%  30%  73%   11%    36%   90
2016     MLB  4.02  1.29   .530  3.0  8.2   1.1  45%  30%  72%   13%    36%   90
2017     MLB  4.14  1.30   .540  3.2  8.4   1.2  45%  30%  72%   13%    37%   88
2018     MLB  3.98  1.27   .528  3.1  8.6   1.2  43%  30%  73%   13%    36%   92
2019**   MLB  4.35  1.31   .526  3.2  8.8   1.4  43%  30%  71%   15%    36%   93
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*all pitchers
**as of June 18

***

Road Stats & Skills: 2010-2019 YTD*

Year  League  ERA   WHIP  Win %  Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
====  ======  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
2010      AL  4.42  1.40   .449  3.4  6.8   1.0  44%  30%  71%   10%    38%   51
2011      AL  4.15  1.34   .470  3.2  6.9   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    37%   60
2012      AL  4.29  1.35   .481  3.2  7.3   1.2  44%  30%  71%   12%    37%   67
2013      AL  4.04  1.34   .470  3.2  7.5   1.1  43%  30%  73%   11%    37%   70
2014      AL  3.85  1.31   .491  3.0  7.6   0.9  44%  31%  73%   10%    36%   78
2015      AL  4.25  1.35   .471  3.1  7.6   1.1  45%  31%  71%   12%    36%   77
2016      AL  4.36  1.36   .468  3.2  7.9   1.2  44%  31%  71%   13%    37%   77
2017      AL  4.59  1.37   .471  3.4  8.2   1.3  43%  31%  70%   14%    37%   79
2018      AL  4.44  1.35   .463  3.4  8.4   1.2  43%  31%  71%   13%    37%   81
2019**    AL  4.51  1.33   .484  3.4  8.6   1.4  42%  30%  71%   15%    37%   84
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010      NL  4.30  1.40   .433  3.5  7.2   1.0  44%  31%  72%   10%    38%   58
2011      NL  4.00  1.35   .478  3.3  7.2   1.0  45%  30%  73%   10%    37%   62
2012      NL  4.15  1.35   .455  3.3  7.6   1.0  45%  31%  72%   11%    37%   72
2013      NL  3.93  1.32   .453  3.2  7.4   0.9  45%  30%  73%   10%    37%   70
2014      NL  3.91  1.32   .449  3.0  7.6   0.9  46%  31%  72%   10%    36%   79
2015      NL  4.09  1.33   .446  3.1  7.7   1.0  46%  31%  72%   11%    36%   80
2016      NL  4.38  1.37   .472  3.4  8.1   1.2  45%  31%  71%   13%    37%   77
2017      NL  4.59  1.40   .449  3.5  8.4   1.3  45%  31%  71%   14%    37%   78
2018      NL  4.22  1.32   .481  3.4  8.5   1.1  44%  30%  71%   12%    37%   81
2019**    NL  4.57  1.36   .464  3.6  8.9   1.4  43%  31%  71%   16%    37%   85
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2010     MLB  4.36  1.40   .441  3.4  7.0   1.0  44%  31%  71%   10%    38%   55
2011     MLB  4.07  1.35   .474  3.3  7.1   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    37%   61
2012     MLB  4.22  1.35   .467  3.2  7.4   1.1  45%  31%  72%   12%    37%   70
2013     MLB  3.99  1.33   .462  3.2  7.4   1.0  44%  30%  73%   11%    37%   70
2014     MLB  3.88  1.31   .470  3.0  7.6   0.9  45%  31%  73%   10%    36%   78
2015     MLB  4.17  1.34   .458  3.1  7.7   1.1  45%  31%  72%   13%    36%   78
2016     MLB  4.37  1.36   .470  3.3  8.0   1.2  45%  31%  71%   13%    37%   77
2017     MLB  4.59  1.38   .460  3.4  8.3   1.3  44%  31%  71%   14%    37%   79
2018     MLB  4.33  1.34   .472  3.4  8.4   1.2  43%  31%  71%   13%    37%   81
2019**   MLB  4.54  1.35   .474  3.5  8.7   1.4  43%  30%  71%   15%    37%   85
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
*all pitchers
**as of June 18

When deciding which SP to activate on a daily basis, a general rule is to target SP pitching at home, as home pitchers continue to post much better stats and skills than their road counterparts.

***

Here are the SP who own the best skills when pitching at home so far this season:

  • 125+ BPV Home*
    
    Name                League  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ==================  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    Sale, Chris             AL  2.6  14.7   1.2  43%  36%  64%   16%    34%  217
    Cole, Gerrit            AL  1.7  13.3   1.4  41%  27%  78%   21%    33%  211
    Buehler, Walker         NL  0.9  11.5   1.0  42%  29%  79%   12%    29%  205
    Morton, Charlie         AL  2.1  12.5   0.8  45%  32%  75%   11%    33%  190
    Scherzer, Max           NL  2.2  12.3   0.9  43%  32%  81%   10%    31%  181
    Verlander, Justin       AL  1.9  12.2   1.9  32%  23%  87%   19%    32%  180
    Woodruff, Brandon       NL  1.9  11.6   1.1  43%  34%  75%   14%    33%  179
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL  2.1  11.3   1.4  52%  28%  72%   21%    34%  178
    Price, David            AL  2.6  12.3   0.9  45%  38%  76%   13%    34%  175
    Paddack, Chris          NL  1.4  10.3   1.0  46%  23%  74%   11%    29%  173
    Bieber, Shane           AL  2.3  11.4   1.2  48%  34%  72%   17%    35%  168
    Snell, Blake            AL  2.8  12.4   1.2  42%  30%  80%   17%    34%  167
    Lester, Jon             NL  1.4   9.6   1.5  46%  38%  78%   17%    37%  159
    Corbin, Patrick         NL  2.0  10.2   0.4  51%  27%  81%    5%    38%  158
    deGrom, Jacob           NL  2.3  11.2   1.0  41%  30%  76%   12%    32%  158
    Flaherty, Jack          NL  1.9  10.6   1.5  38%  23%  78%   19%    35%  155
    Ryu, Hyun-Jin           NL  1.2   8.6   0.4  53%  25%  93%    7%    33%  154
    Montas, Frankie         AL  2.4  10.3   0.4  53%  33%  74%    7%    36%  153
    Ray, Robbie             NL  3.7  12.9   1.6  43%  32%  76%   22%    36%  152
    Marquez, German         NL  2.2  10.0   1.6  51%  41%  61%   22%    34%  149
    Kelly, Merrill          NL  1.0   8.6   1.5  41%  32%  73%   16%    33%  149
    Lynn, Lance             AL  1.9   9.6   0.7  45%  36%  69%    8%    36%  146
    German, Domingo         AL  2.2  11.0   1.4  30%  26%  89%   15%    33%  146
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL  1.7   9.2   0.9  47%  29%  84%   11%    33%  144
    Gray, Sonny             NL  2.5  10.0   1.0  54%  30%  73%   14%    38%  144
    Castillo, Luis          NL  2.8  10.0   0.7  60%  25%  78%   13%    38%  141
    Bumgarner, Madison      NL  1.4   8.9   0.9  41%  27%  72%   10%    33%  141
    Greinke, Zack           AL  1.0   7.9   0.7  47%  30%  70%   10%    35%  141
    Matz, Steven            NL  2.3   9.6   0.7  52%  31%  84%   10%    34%  139
    Boyd, Matt              AL  1.9   9.9   2.4  35%  28%  76%   21%    33%  138
    Maeda, Kenta            NL  2.0   9.5   1.2  42%  22%  75%   14%    33%  135
    Smith, Caleb            NL  2.9  11.1   1.0  34%  29%  73%   13%    34%  132
    Giolito, Lucas          AL  3.4  11.4   1.2  41%  28%  69%   13%    35%  131
    Wheeler, Zack           NL  2.4   9.6   0.9  45%  31%  65%   10%    32%  130
    Hendricks, Kyle         NL  1.5   7.9   0.8  47%  24%  83%   10%    30%  128
    Fried, Max              NL  1.8   8.2   1.0  52%  33%  75%   17%    35%  128
    Tanaka, Masahiro        AL  1.8   8.2   1.0  49%  30%  76%   13%    33%  125
    *min 40 IP

Next, the guys with the best skills when pitching away from home:

  • 125+ BPV Road*
    
    Name                League  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ==================  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    Scherzer, Max           NL  1.0  13.1   0.4  40%  37%  77%    6%    31%  227
    Boyd, Matt              AL  2.4  13.7   1.3  36%  39%  68%   16%    34%  196
    Sale, Chris             AL  2.0  12.0   1.8  43%  32%  66%   22%    33%  183
    Bieber, Shane           AL  1.4  10.9   1.3  43%  24%  75%   15%    33%  179
    deGrom, Jacob           NL  2.0  11.8   0.8  41%  34%  83%   11%    33%  176
    Verlander, Justin       AL  1.9  11.8   1.4  36%  24%  74%   15%    32%  175
    Cole, Gerritt           AL  2.8  12.6   1.4  37%  32%  82%   16%    33%  167
    Paxton, James           AL  2.6  11.7   2.1  40%  41%  74%   20%    34%  159
    Strahm, Matt            NL  2.1  10.7   1.3  33%  33%  74%   12%    33%  148
    Syndergaard, Noah       NL  1.6   9.0   0.6  51%  33%  70%    8%    33%  146
    Strasburg, Stephen      NL  2.4  10.2   0.8  48%  32%  67%   11%    36%  144
    Lynn, Lance             AL  2.7  11.0   1.0  40%  32%  77%   11%    37%  143
    Montas, Frankie         AL  1.9   9.2   0.9  49%  31%  83%   12%    34%  142
    Yarbrough, Ryan         AL  0.5   7.2   0.6  48%  21%  71%    8%    31%  142
    Mahle, Tyler            NL  1.2   8.3   1.8  46%  36%  64%   24%    33%  141
    Marquez, German         NL  1.4   8.3   1.3  50%  24%  68%   18%    32%  138
    Gibson, Kyle            AL  2.6  10.2   1.7  45%  36%  79%   24%    38%  136
    Snell, Blake            AL  3.5  11.8   1.4  39%  39%  61%   17%    37%  135
    Darvish, Yu             AL  3.2  11.0   1.7  45%  27%  71%   23%    35%  134
    Giolito, Lucas          AL  2.9  11.1   0.9  34%  31%  78%   10%    33%  133
    Wheeler, Zack           NL  2.2   9.3   1.3  47%  36%  71%   15%    33%  132
    Buehler, Walker         NL  2.3   9.3   1.1  46%  32%  71%   14%    33%  130
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL  2.3   8.9   1.3  54%  27%  72%   17%    32%  130
    Morton, Charlie         AL  3.0  10.0   0.7  52%  31%  76%   10%    35%  128
    *min 40 IP

Finally, here are the SP with the widest home/road skill splits:

  • BPV Home vs. Road*
    
    Name                League  BPV Home  BPV Road  Diff
    ==================  ======  ========  ========  ====
    Kelly, Merrill          NL       149        25  +124
    Anderson, Chase         NL       120        32   +87
    Alcantara, Sandy        NL        56       -26   +82
    Perez, Martin           AL       101        20   +81
    Paddack, Chris          NL       173        97   +76
    Buehler, Walker         NL       205       130   +75
    Lester, Jon             NL       159        88   +71
    Matz, Steven            NL       139        69   +70
    Woodruff, Brandon       NL       179       109   +70
    Sanchez, Aaron          AL        77        12   +65
    Sparkman, Glenn         AL        71         7   +64
    Morton, Charlie         AL       190       128   +62
    Sabathia, C.C.          AL       113        52   +61
    Tanaka, Masahiro        AL       125        64   +61
    Flaherty, Jack          NL       155        97   +58
    Wainwright, Adam        NL       113        56   +58
    Turnbull, Spencer       AL       108        52   +56
    Thornton, Trent         AL        98        42   +56
    Bailey, Homer           AL        88        32   +56
    Price, David            AL       175       120   +54
    Maeda, Kenta            NL       135        82   +53
    Odorizzi, Jake          AL       115        63   +52
    Castillo, Luis          NL       141        89   +52
    Keller, Brad            AL        80        29   +51
    ----------------------------------------------------
    Anderson, Brett         AL         9        83   -74
    Cashner, Andrew         AL        15        88   -74
    Arrieta, Jake           NL        35       100   -65
    Boyd, Matt              AL       138       196   -58
    Paxton, James           AL       104       159   -55
    Yarbrough, Ryan         AL        90       142   -51
    Richards, Trevor        NL        33        84   -51
    Porcello, Rick          AL        64       114   -50
    Syndergaard, Noah       NL        96       146   -50
    Gibson, Kyle            AL        88       136   -49
    Stroman, Marcus         NL        73       121   -47
    Scherzer, Max           NL       181       227   -46
    Duffy, Danny            AL        53        98   -45
    Archer, Chris           NL        67       111   -44
    Freeland, Kyle          NL        35        76   -40
    Davies, Zach            NL        23        55   -32
    Strahm, Matt            NL       118       148   -30
    Mahle, Tyler            NL       114       141   -26
    *min 40 IP home/road

Let's take a closer look at some noteworthy home/road BPV splits that you can use to help set your rotations, as well as use to identify emerging arms.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Charlie Morton (RHP, TAM) has looked like a legit rotation anchor when pitching at home. Morton has posted a 2.75 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 68 IP at home, and he owns solidly elite skills there as well: 12.5 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 45% GB%, 190 BPV. While his stats and skills on the road are valuable (3.02 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 128 BPV), he's a must-start in all leagues when he pitches at home.

James Paxton (LHP, NYY) owns some of the widest home/road stat splits in the game. He has looked like a legit SP2 when pitching at home (3.75 ERA, 1.28 WHIP in 60 IP). His stats have imploded on the road (5.21 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in 48 IP), but that has been due to a 41% H% more than anything else. His skills on the road have been excellent: 11.7 Dom, 2.6 Ctl, 40% GB%, 159 BPV.

Martin Perez (LHP, MIN) is someone that can help owners down the stretch if they use him wisely. The old Perez seems to hang around when he pitches away from home (4.36 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 20 BPV in 53 IP on road). While Perez's stats aren't great at home (4.72 ERA), he's not a WHIP killer there (1.36 WHIP), and his skills are very solid at home: 8.4 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 48% GB%, 101 BPV.

Blake Snell (LHP, TAM) has looked like an elite pitcher when healthy this season, at least when pitching at home. He has a 2.82 ERA and 1.05 WHIP during his home starts, along with firmly elite skills: 12.4 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 42% GB%, 167 BPV. He has posted an ugly 5.98 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the road, due in most part to a 39% H%, 61% S%, and 17% hr/f. His skills on the road are very good (135 BPV).

Ryan Yarbrough (LHP, TAM) is another TAM hurler that owns some wide home/road splits. At home, he has posted a 5.36 ERA in 42 IP in spite of some decent skills (90 BPV).  A 57% S% at home has inflated his ERA there. Yarbrough has looked like an impact arm on the road, both in terms of his stats (2.22 ERA, 0.67 WHIP in 56 IP) and skills (142 BPV).
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chase Anderson (RHP, MIL) can produce some sneaky value during his home starts. He has delivered a 3.92 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 62 IP, along with a strong collection of skills: 9.4 Dom, 2.5 Ctl, 38% GB%, 120 BPV. His stats have been a mixed bag on the road (3.59 ERA, 1.43 WHIP in 42 IP), where his command goes from good to poor: 7.0 Dom, 4.0 Ctl, 37% GB%, 32 BPV.

Luis Castillo (RHP, CIN) has looked like a rotation anchor during his home starts this season (2.35 ERA, 0.94 WHIP in 95 IP). His home skills give strong support to those stats: 10.0 Dom, 2.8 Ctl, 60% GB%, 141 BPV. Castillo's stats erode quite a bit on the road (3.38 ERA, 1.44 WHIP in 48 IP), where he can't find the plate: 12.4 Dom, 5.8 Ctl, 46% GB%, 89 BPV.

Merrill Kelly (RHP, ARI) owns some of the widest home/road skills splits in the game. He has been very strong at home, where he has posted a 3.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 65 IP. His skills there back up those marks too: 8.6 Dom, 1.0 Ctl, 41% GB%, 149 BPV. He hasn't been worth using at all on the road (5.60 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in 70 IP), and his road skills offer no hope for improvement: 5.9 Dom, 3.7 Ctl, 41% GB%, 25 BPV.

German Marquez (RHP, COL) has been prone to ups-and-downs so far in 2019. Few pitchers have been worse at home than Marquez (6.45 ERA, 1.58 WHIP in 68 IP). Interestingly, Marquez's skills at home have been excellent: 10.0 Dom, 2.2 Ctl, 51% GB%, 149 BPV. Few pitchers have been more unlucky at home than Marquez (41% H%, 61% S%, 22% hr/f). The true Marquez comes out on the road (3.52 ERA, 0.91 WHIP), where his skills also have been very strong (138 BPV).

Chris Paddack (RHP, SD) already looks like a legit rotation anchor when he pitches at home (2.53 ERA, 0.77 WHIP in 53 IP). His skills at home are just as good as his results: 10.3 Dom, 1.4 Ctl, 46% GB%, 173 BPV. Paddack has been prone to more blowups on the road (3.95 ERA, 1.09 WHIP in 57 IP), largely because of bouts of gopheritis away from SD (1.9 HR/9) that have been caused by a lower groundball rate (38% GB%).

Brandon Woodruff (RHP, MIL) is another emerging starting pitcher that has looked the part of a SP2 when pitching at home (3.24 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 66 IP). His skills at home have been some of the best in the game: 11.6 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 43% GB%, 179 BPV. He isn't nearly as strong away from MIL (4.41 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 51 IP), where his skills are good but not great: 8.8 Dom, 2.7 Ctl, 44% GB%, 109 BPV.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.