STARTERS: BPV home/road, 2018 updated

Our research five years ago confirmed that ERA, WHIP, win percentage, BPV, Dom (K/9), and Ctl (BB/9) all had significant home/road performance variances.

Through mid-2018, those finds have held to form:

  • Home Stats & Skills: 2010-2018 YTD*
    
    Year  League  ERA   WHIP  Win %  Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ====  ======  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    2010      AL  3.87  1.30   .558  3.1  6.9   1.0  44%  29%  73%    9%    37%   63
    2011      AL  4.02  1.31   .534  3.0  7.0   1.0  45%  30%  72%   11%    36%   68
    2012      AL  3.90  1.27   .534  2.9  7.6   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    36%   80
    2013      AL  3.95  1.30   .533  3.0  7.8   1.0  43%  30%  73%   11%    36%   82
    2014      AL  3.79  1.26   .519  2.8  7.7   0.9  44%  30%  72%    9%    36%   85
    2015      AL  3.79  1.24   .543  2.7  7.7   1.0  44%  29%  73%   11%    36%   87          
    2016      AL  4.06  1.29   .544  2.9  8.1   1.2  44%  30%  73%   13%    36%   92
    2017      AL  4.17  1.29   .537  3.1  8.4   1.3  43%  30%  72%   14%    37%   89
    2018**    AL  4.06  1.27   .511  3.1  8.5   1.2  43%  30%  72%   13%    36%   91
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010      NL  3.77  1.30   .560  3.2  7.6   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    37%   74
    2011      NL  3.65  1.27   .519  2.9  7.4   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   77
    2012      NL  3.76  1.27   .532  2.9  7.8   1.0  46%  30%  73%   11%    36%   86
    2013      NL  3.55  1.24   .543  2.8  7.6   0.9  46%  30%  74%   12%    36%   86
    2014      NL  3.43  1.22   .541  2.8  8.0   0.8  46%  30%  74%   10%    36%   93
    2015      NL  3.74  1.27   .540  2.8  8.0   1.0  47%  31%  73%   11%    36%   93
    2016      NL  3.98  1.29   .516  3.1  8.3   1.1  45%  30%  72%   12%    36%   89
    2017      NL  4.10  1.31   .542  3.3  8.4   1.2  46%  30%  72%   13%    36%   87
    2018**    NL  3.89  1.28   .521  3.3  8.8   1.1  44%  30%  73%   13%    37%   91
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010     MLB  3.82  1.30   .559  3.1  7.3   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    37%   69
    2011     MLB  3.82  1.28   .526  3.0  7.2   0.9  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   72
    2012     MLB  3.83  1.30   .533  3.1  7.3   0.9  46%  30%  73%   11%    36%   70
    2013     MLB  3.75  1.27   .538  2.9  7.7   1.0  45%  30%  73%   11%    36%   84
    2014     MLB  3.61  1.24   .530  2.8  7.8   0.8  45%  30%  73%    9%    36%   89
    2015     MLB  3.77  1.25   .541  2.8  7.9   1.0  45%  30%  73%   11%    36%   90
    2016     MLB  4.02  1.29   .530  3.0  8.2   1.1  45%  30%  72%   13%    36%   90
    2017     MLB  4.14  1.30   .540  3.2  8.4   1.2  45%  30%  72%   13%    37%   88
    2018**   MLB  3.98  1.27   .516  3.2  8.6   1.2  43%  29%  73%   13%    36%   91
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *all pitchers
    **as of June 20

***

  • Road Stats & Skills: 2010-2018 YTD*
    
    Year  League  ERA   WHIP  Win %  Ctl  Dom  HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ====  ======  ====  ====  =====  ===  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    2010      AL  4.42  1.40   .449  3.4  6.8   1.0  44%  30%  71%   10%    38%   51
    2011      AL  4.15  1.34   .470  3.2  6.9   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    37%   60
    2012      AL  4.29  1.35   .481  3.2  7.3   1.2  44%  30%  71%   12%    37%   67
    2013      AL  4.04  1.34   .470  3.2  7.5   1.1  43%  30%  73%   11%    37%   70
    2014      AL  3.85  1.31   .491  3.0  7.6   0.9  44%  31%  73%   10%    36%   78
    2015      AL  4.25  1.35   .471  3.1  7.6   1.1  45%  31%  71%   12%    36%   77
    2016      AL  4.36  1.36   .468  3.2  7.9   1.2  44%  31%  71%   13%    37%   77
    2017      AL  4.59  1.37   .471  3.4  8.2   1.3  43%  31%  70%   14%    37%   79
    2018**    AL  4.21  1.32   .479  3.3  8.6   1.2  43%  31%  72%   12%    37%   85
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010      NL  4.30  1.40   .433  3.5  7.2   1.0  44%  31%  72%   10%    38%   58
    2011      NL  4.00  1.35   .478  3.3  7.2   1.0  45%  30%  73%   10%    37%   62
    2012      NL  4.15  1.35   .455  3.3  7.6   1.0  45%  31%  72%   11%    37%   72
    2013      NL  3.93  1.32   .453  3.2  7.4   0.9  45%  30%  73%   10%    37%   70
    2014      NL  3.91  1.32   .449  3.0  7.6   0.9  46%  31%  72%   10%    36%   79
    2015      NL  4.09  1.33   .446  3.1  7.7   1.0  46%  31%  72%   11%    36%   80
    2016      NL  4.38  1.37   .472  3.4  8.1   1.2  45%  31%  71%   13%    37%   77
    2017      NL  4.59  1.40   .449  3.5  8.4   1.3  45%  31%  71%   14%    37%   78
    2018**    NL  4.12  1.32   .489  3.5  8.5   1.1  44%  30%  72%   12%    37%   79
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2010     MLB  4.36  1.40   .441  3.4  7.0   1.0  44%  31%  71%   10%    38%   55
    2011     MLB  4.07  1.35   .474  3.3  7.1   1.0  44%  30%  72%   10%    37%   61
    2012     MLB  4.22  1.35   .467  3.2  7.4   1.1  45%  31%  72%   12%    37%   70
    2013     MLB  3.99  1.33   .462  3.2  7.4   1.0  44%  30%  73%   11%    37%   70
    2014     MLB  3.88  1.31   .470  3.0  7.6   0.9  45%  31%  73%   10%    36%   78
    2015     MLB  4.17  1.34   .458  3.1  7.7   1.1  45%  31%  72%   13%    36%   78
    2016     MLB  4.37  1.36   .470  3.3  8.0   1.2  45%  31%  71%   13%    37%   77
    2017     MLB  4.59  1.38   .460  3.4  8.3   1.3  44%  31%  71%   14%    37%   79
    2018**   MLB  4.16  1.32   .484  3.4  8.5   1.1  43%  30%  72%   12%    37%   82
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    *all pitchers
    **as of June 20

When deciding which SP to activate on a daily basis, a general rule is to target SP pitching at home, as home pitchers continue to post much better stats and skills than their road counterparts.

***

Here are the SP who own the best skills when pitching at home so far this season:

  • 125+ BPV Home*
    
    Name                League  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ==================  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    Sale, Chris             AL  2.6  13.7   0.5  51%  35%  83%    8%    31%  205
    Verlander, Justin       AL  1.2  12.4   1.8  29%  28%  78%   16%    30%  198
    deGrom, Jacob           NL  1.7  11.7   0.5  41%  29%  85%    7%    32%  183
    Scherzer, Max           NL  2.1  12.4   1.1  38%  26%  79%   13%    31%  182
    Corbin, Patrick         NL  1.7  11.1   0.8  48%  31%  68%   12%    36%  178
    Stripling, Ross         NL  1.2  10.0   1.1  53%  33%  86%   14%    32%  176
    Pivetta, Nick           NL  2.0  11.6   1.2  42%  35%  68%   13%    33%  175
    Paxton, James           AL  2.3  11.6   1.0  40%  29%  72%   12%    31%  164
    Gray, Jon               NL  2.4  10.7   1.0  56%  37%  66%   17%    36%  163
    Cole, Gerrit            AL  2.9  12.6   0.9  36%  27%  75%   12%    33%  162
    Morton, Charlie         AL  3.0  11.5   0.9  51%  31%  77%   16%    36%  155
    Carrasco, Carlos        AL  2.1  10.6   1.5  43%  37%  69%   17%    35%  155
    Kluber, Corey           AL  1.1   8.9   0.9  44%  27%  82%   11%    33%  151
    Berrios, Jose           AL  1.9  10.1   0.4  42%  27%  66%    6%    35%  151
    Bauer, Trevor           AL  3.1  11.9   0.4  42%  30%  84%    6%    37%  151
    Syndergaard, Noah       NL  2.5  10.5   0.5  48%  37%  75%    8%    36%  147
    Flaherty, Jack          NL  2.7  11.2   1.5  40%  29%  76%   17%    39%  147
    Severino, Luis          AL  2.3  10.5   0.9  43%  29%  78%   11%    34%  147
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL  2.2   9.8   0.7  51%  30%  77%   13%    31%  146
    Taillon, Jameson        NL  1.9   9.7   1.3  44%  31%  70%   15%    33%  145
    Nola, Aaron             NL  2.1   9.6   0.5  50%  30%  82%    7%    31%  145
    Holland, Derek          NL  2.3  10.1   0.6  41%  34%  65%    8%    34%  140
    McCullers, Lance        AL  2.8  10.1   0.6  55%  28%  67%    9%    37%  139
    Happ, J.A.              AL  2.2   9.9   1.6  43%  29%  61%   15%    36%  139
    Castillo, Luis          NL  2.4  10.0   1.4  45%  29%  71%   17%    35%  138
    Gonzales, Marco         AL  2.0   9.0   0.5  47%  33%  74%    8%    32%  131
    Velasquez, Vincent      NL  3.4  11.3   1.6  39%  28%  64%   16%    35%  128
    Mahle, Tyler            NL  3.3  11.1   2.7  38%  33%  78%   30%    35%  128
    Eflin, Zach             NL  2.1   9.4   1.5  37%  27%  78%   17%    34%  127
    Archer, Chris           NL  2.7   9.8   0.8  46%  37%  65%   10%    34%  126
    Clevinger, Mike         AL  2.1   9.1   0.9  41%  33%  70%   11%    34%  126
    *min 40 IP

Next, the guys with the best skills when pitching away from home:

  • 125+ BPV Road*
    
    Name                League  Ctl  Dom   HR/9  GB%  H%   S%   hr/f  Ball%  BPV
    ==================  ======  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ====  =====  ===
    Sale, Chris             AL  1.7  13.4   0.7  42%  26%  78%   10%    32%  215
    Scherzer, Max           NL  2.2  11.9   0.7  34%  28%  85%    7%    32%  167
    Carrasco, Carlos        AL  1.6  10.0   0.8  45%  29%  77%   10%    31%  161
    Stripling, Ross         NL  1.5   9.9   1.2  41%  33%  82%   13%    34%  155
    Syndergaard, Noah       NL  1.0   8.3   0.6  50%  34%  74%    9%    34%  151
    Corbin, Patrick         NL  2.9  11.1   0.6  51%  32%  74%   10%    36%  151
    Greinke, Zack           NL  1.3   9.2   1.8  42%  30%  77%   20%    36%  150
    Paxton, James           AL  2.5  11.1   1.2  39%  33%  70%   13%    33%  150
    Verlander, Justin       AL  2.1  11.0   0.6  31%  29%  86%    6%    34%  149
    Bauer, Trevor           AL  3.0  11.3   0.4  46%  33%  78%    6%    37%  147
    Tanaka, Masahiro        AL  2.0   9.7   1.9  47%  26%  73%   23%    33%  146
    Kershaw, Clayton        NL  0.8   7.7   0.9  47%  29%  85%   11%    33%  144
    Cole, Gerrit            NL  3.0  11.7   0.8  34%  29%  77%    9%    33%  144
    deGrom, Jacob           NL  2.5  10.2   0.4  49%  31%  82%    7%    31%  143
    Severino, Luis          AL  2.0   9.8   1.1  41%  34%  73%   13%    30%  140
    Kluber, Corey           AL  1.1   8.1   1.5  46%  26%  73%   18%    32%  139
    Price, David            AL  2.1   9.7   1.3  40%  32%  70%   14%    34%  137
    Gray, Sonny             AL  2.7  10.0   0.5  50%  33%  70%    7%    36%  136
    Maeda, Kenta            NL  3.1  10.9   0.9  42%  32%  69%   11%    34%  133
    Pivetta, Nick           NL  3.1  10.3   1.4  49%  36%  69%   19%    34%  129
    Marquez, German         NL  2.6   9.5   1.1  47%  27%  76%   14%    35%  128
    Skaggs, Tyler           AL  2.4   9.4   0.6  45%  34%  73%    7%    36%  127
    Flaherty, Jack          NL  3.5  11.0   1.2  44%  26%  79%   17%    36%  126
    *min 40 IP

Finally, here are the SP with the widest home/road skill splits:

  • BPV Home vs. Road*
    
    Name                League  BPV Home  BPV Road  Diff
    ==================  ======  ========  ========  ====
    Mahle, Tyler            NL     128        -1    +129
    Holland, Derek          NL     140        54     +86
    Berrios, Jose           AL     151        70     +81
    Castillo, Luis          NL     138        59     +78
    Taillon, Jameson        NL     145        74     +71
    Straily, Dan            NL      64        -5     +68
    Clevinger, Mike         AL     126        60     +65
    Sabathia, C.C.          AL     112        47     +65
    Covey, Dylan            AL      73        10     +62
    Estrada, Marco          AL      83        20     +62
    Godley, Zack            NL     120        60     +60
    Richard, Clayton        NL      81        23     +58
    Hernandez, Felix        AL      88        30     +57
    Williams, Trevor        NL      70        13     +57
    Romano, Sal             NL      74        19     +54
    Lauer, Eric             NL      79        26     +53
    Velasquez, Vincent      NL     128        76     +52
    Nola, Aaron             NL     145        92     +52
    Quintana, Jose          NL      84        32     +51
    Morton, Charlie         AL     155       105     +50
    Verlander, Justin       AL     198       149     +50
    ----------------------------------------------------
    Gray, Sonny             AL       4       136    -132
    Price, David            AL      76       137     -61
    Montgomery, Mike        NL      22        77     -55
    Tanaka, Masahiro        AL      93       146     -53
    Ross, Tyson             NL      30        80     -51
    Stratton, Chris         NL      22        67     -46
    Lester, Jon             NL      27        71     -44
    Hammel, Jason           AL      25        68     -42
    Kuhl, Chad              NL      55        93     -38
    Bundy, Dylan            AL      89       119     -30
    Fulmer, Michael         AL      64        91     -28
    Duffy, Danny            AL      33        60     -28
    Greinke, Zack           NL     124       150     -27
    Marquez, German         NL     102       128     -26
    *min 40 IP home/road

Here is a closer look at some noteworthy home/road BPV splits that you can use to help set your rotations, as well as help you to identify emerging arms.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Jose Berrios (RHP, MIN) has looked like a budding rotation anchor at times in 2018. Digging deeper, he has resembled an ace at home (2.95 ERA, 0.88 WHIP). His skills there have been impressive too: 10.1 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, 42% GB%, 151 BPV. Most of his hiccups have occurred on the road (4.59 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) as a result of marginal command (7.9 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 70 BPV).

Marco Gonzales (LHP, SEA) has put up a solid 3.91 ERA and 1.23 WHIP after 24 starts in 2018. Those marks have been even better at home (3.12 ERA, 1.16 WHIP), and they have come with full support of his home skills: 9.0 Dom, 2.0 Ctl, 47% GB%, 131 BPV. His skills are good on the road (106 BPV), but he has struggled to keep the ball in the park away from SEA (17% hr/f), which has caused his stats to spike (4.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP on road).

Sonny Gray (RHP, NYY) has been dumped in many leagues after his rough 2018 season. However, those looking for a buy-low play for 2019 could do worse than speculating on Gray, especially if he ends up with a new team. All of his struggles have come at Yankee Stadium (7.92 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, 4 BPV). He has been excellent on the road, both on the surface (3.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and beneath it (136 BPV).

Felix Hernandez (RHP, SEA) is back in the SEA rotation after the injury to James Paxton (LHP, SEA). While Hernandez is a shell of his former self, he has some utility during his home starts (4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 88 BPV). He belongs firmly on your bench when he pitches away from SEA: 7.90 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 30 BPV.

David Price (LHP, BOS) is another former ace with some interesting home/road splits. While his stats at home have been good (3.28 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), they haven't come with support from his skills (76 BPV). His prior skill upside comes out when he pitches on the road: 9.7 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 40% GB%, 137 BPV.

Masahiro Tanaka (RHP, NYY) is someone you should sit during his home starts if you have a deep rotation. He owns a 4.46 ERA at Yankee Stadium, albeit with decent skills (93 BPV). His stats (3.86 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) and skills (146 BPV) have been much more impactful on the road.
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Luis Castillo (RHP, CIN) certainly hasn't lived up to his pre-season breakout potential. But his stats and skills at home reflect the upside he does carry: 3.94 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 138 BPV. All of his results totally implode away from CIN: 6.18 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 59 BPV.

Jon Gray (RHP, COL) might be a no-brainer to reserve when he pitches in Coors Field, but a closer look suggests otherwise. Gray's stats at home (4.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) aren't much different than those he has put up away from home (4.88 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), and his skills actually have been significantly better at home (163 BPV) than on the road (124 BPV).

Derek Holland (LHP, SF) has tapped into his long-dormant upper-rotation upside when he pitches at home. He has an elite collection of skills during his home starts: 10.1 Dom, 2.3 Ctl, 41% GB%, 140 BPV. His skills aren't roster-worthy when he's away from SF: 8.1 Dom, 3.9 Ctl, 36% GB%, 54 BPV. With significant skills growth in the 2H, Holland is someone worth starting down the stretch, particularly during his home starts.

Tyler Mahle (RHP, CIN) owns some of the widest home/road splits in the game, even though his surface results haven't been good in either environment (4.96 ERA, 1.42 WHIP at home; 4.95 ERA, 1.69 WHIP on road). If you need a stretch-run speculation, consider using Mahle at home, as his skills there have been very good: 11.1 Dom, 3.3 Ctl, 38% GB%, 128 BPV. A crazy 30% hr/f at home has fueled his bad stats there.

German Marquez (RHP, COL) has been one of the game's best pitchers since the calendar turned to July. He has a nifty 2.91 ERA and 1.01 WHIP since July 1, marks that have come with complete support of his skills: 10.6 Dom, 2.1 Ctl, 53% GB%, 167 BPV. Marquez's skill upside also is evident in his home/road splits. His overall stats (3.09 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) and skills (128 BPV) have been really good on the road. His stats have completely tanked at home (6.42 ERA, 1.74 WHIP), but that has been due more to bad luck (40% H%, 22% hr/f) than a lack of skill (102 BPV). Early 2019 breakout targets don't get much better than Marquez.

Clayton Richard (LHP, SD) could be someone worth using in deep NL-only leagues down the stretch if you have flexible roster management. He has a solid 3.59 ERA and 1.18 WHIP during his home starts, along with playable skills (81 BPV). You just don't want him anywhere near your active roster when he pitches on the road (6.28 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 23 BPV).


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.