ROTISSERIE: Mayberry on the edge

The Mayberry Method allows one to focus on the core components of valuable fantasy baseball players. Much of the analysis and study is justifiably focused on player skill, but it shouldn't be forgotten that players must accumulate PA/IP for those skills to actually benefit a fantasy team. The Mayberry Method incorporates this logic by using playing time not only as a variable in the formula, but also as a multiplier:  

  • Hitters: Overall MM Batting Score = (PX score + Spd score + xBA score + PA score) x PA score
  • Pitchers: MM Score = ((xERA score x 2) + K/9 score + Saves score + IP score) x (IP score + Saves score)

The top hitters and starting pitchers (those projected to amass 450+ PAs or 180+ IP) are given the best MM score of 5; those who miss these playing time benchmarks receive a 3, 1, or 0 on a declining scale as projected playing time decreases. As the most critical element of the Mayberry Score, it's instructive to take a closer look at players on the projected IP & PA margins. For example, Tim Lincecum’s MM score of 48 probably comes as no surprise given his sub-par 2012 campaign; some would chalk it up to a loss of skill.  Lincecum’s projected 174 IP just misses the MM benchmark by 6 innings; if he's those 6 innings, his overall Mayberry score rockets all the way to 90—the same as highly skilled SP like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Yu Darvish, and Yovani Gallardo. 

The following charts highlight the players whose projected PT is just below the top Mayberry benchmark; a small playing time increase raises their MM score considerably. Projected playing time, current Mayberry score (MM), and adjusted Mayberry score are included. 

Starting Pitchers

Name             IP   MM  MMn
===============  ===  ==  ===
Lincecum, Tim    174  48  90
Moore, Matt      174  48  90
Fiers, Mike      174  39  75
Harvey, Matt     167  39  75
Estrada, Marco   160  39  75
Hanson, Tommy    160  39  75
Beckett, Josh    174  36  70
Hammell, Jason   174  36  75
Johnson, Josh    174  36  70
Marcum, Shaun    174  36  70
Gee, Dillon      160  36  70
Iwakuma, Hisashi 174  33  65
Doubront, Felix  160  33  65
Pettitte, Andy   160  33  65
Hughes, Phil     174  30  60

The six inning adjustment for Tim Lincecum (RHP, SF) and corresponding MM score increase indicate that he may not be washed up just yet. Even at his worst in 2012 he was able to maintain a 9+ Dom, 46% GB rate, and a sub 4.00 xERA. 

Six additional innings almost doubles Matt Moore’s (LHP, TAM) Mayberry score. The 23-year-old lefty has dominating stuff (9.7 Dom) and is a 2013 breakout candidate who needs to work more efficiently to maximize his skills impact. 

Mike Fiers hit the ground running out of the gate (2.85 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 101 IP through August), then crashed and burned down the stretch (7.09 ERA, 1.88 WHIP in six Sept starts). He also displayed strong skills throughout (BPV by month: 75, 141, 92, 128, 92) and could be cheap in 2013 drafts/auctions. 

The Mets will likely exercise caution with Matt Harvey (RHP, NYM) in his first full big league season, making him an unlikely candidate to pitch the 20 additional innings needed to reach 180. However, those in keeper leagues should take note of the skills (2012 MLB: 10.6 Dom, 101 BPV). 

Marco Estrada (RHP, MIL) is not the powerful, physical pitcher his Dom might lead you to believe; the extra 20 innings he needs might be a stretch. However, his strong skills (129 BPV in 2012) are largely overlooked and valuable on a per-inning basis. 

BaseballHQ.com readers were probably among the first to roster Jason Hammel (RHP, BAL) as he built on his intriguing 2009/10 skills. His MMn score confirms that he has #2 SP upside if his knee cooperates.

Shaun Marcum (RHP, NYM) was vintage in the first half  of 2012 (3.39 ERA, 3.0 Cmd, 90 BPV), but after missing the entire month of July due to a tight elbow he wasn’t the same from August on (4.32 ERA, 2.1 Cmd, 48 BPV). He’s a health risk, but if the elbow is sound there’s profit to be had. 

Dillon Gee’s (RHP, NYM) 2012 breakout season was obscured by a hr/f-inflated ERA and a blood clot that limited him to 110 innings. Gee keeps the ball on the ground (50% GB), misses bats (8.0 Dom), and limits free passes (2.4 Ctl). There’s significant upside here.

Hitters

Name                PA   MM  MMn
==================  ===  ==  ===
Venable, Will       442  42  80
Hart, Corey         442  36  70
Lucroy, Jonathan    442  36  70
Martin, Leonys      442  36  70
Reimold, Nolan      408  36  70
Mastroianni, Darin  408  33  65
Parra, Gerardo      408  33  65
Ruiz, Carlos        408  33  65
Getz, Chris         442  30  60
Moreland, Mitch     442  30  60
Quentin, Carlos     442  30  60
Scott, Luke         442  30  60
Arencibia, JP       408  30  60
Forsythe, Logan     408  30  60
Hicks, Aaron        408  30  60

An additional eight plate appearances is all that Will Venable (OF, SD) needs to match the Mayberry score of elite power/speed OFs. Venable’s major obstacle to gaining PAs is his inability to hit LHP (career .583 OPS), although he improved significantly in that department last year (.684 OPS).  Four straight seasons of 100+ PX and Spd, PETCO's upgrades, and improving plate skills provide hope for a $20+ season.  

The eight PAs Jonathan Lucroy (C, MIL) needs to get his MMn score to 70 will match that of top Mayberry catcher Matt Wieters. Lucroy enters his age-27 season with almost 1000 MLB plate appearances and is projected to have an above-average h%, PX, and ct%. He’s also the rare catcher with above-average Spd who should provide a handful of SBs. 

Solid but unspectacular skills across the board make Leonys Martin (OF, TEX) the type of prospect who flies a bit beneath the radar. His Triple-A MLEs denote immediate .300, 20/20 potential, but lower expectations and acquisition cost leave room for profit.

Nolan Reimold’s (OF, BAL) path to increased PT goes through Nate McLouth, Wilson Betemit, and Chris Davis. If he is healthy, he should have no problem getting into the lineup. His MMn of 70 provides a hint of the upside. 

Mitch Moreland’s (1B, TEX) MMn score of 65 is the same as fellow 1B Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Eric Hosmer, and Freddy Freeman. This leaves us with an impression of Moreland’s upside as a .270/25+ HR guy, depending on the health of Lance Berkman’s left knee.

Poor health is the only thing holding back the great plate approach (11% bb%, 86% ct) and power (146 PX) of Carlos Quentin (OF, SD). As we are reminded in the Baseball Forecaster, “Chronically injured players don’t suddenly get healthy.” 

If Aaron Hicks (OF, MIN) wins the CF job, his MMn score of 60 denotes upside worth considering. His Major League Equivalents from Double-A show both promising skills (144 SX, 12% bb%, 93 PX) and warts (73% ct%, .255 BA).  His most likely path to value in 2013 is securing the everyday CF job with his plus defense, then maintaining a double-digit bb%, and stealing plenty of bases.

For definitions and benchmarks of BaseballHQ.com's most-used terms, see our Glossary Primer.


Click here to subscribe

  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.