RESEARCH: Effect of Tommy John surgery on hitters

It’s been a few seasons since a hitter with major fantasy impact had Tommy John surgery. In 2018, there were three: Corey Seager, Didi Gregorius, and Shohei Ohtani. If all three were healthy, they’d easily be going in the single-digit rounds. There is a good chance Seager and Ohtani still will, but will they perform as the computer/projection suggests? After going back and analyzing historic values, hitters do see a power drop coming back from the operation, but nothing to keep owners away.

Full text available to BaseballHQ full subscription subscribers only. Please Subscribe at

Click here to subscribe

  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.