HQ NOW: Experts Leagues Winner's Circle, 2023F/F SPOTLIGHT: Michael Brantley
@StephenNickrand
July 31st, 2014 11:05pm
A glance at the 10 hitters who have produced the most value in 5x5 leagues so far this season reveals some expected names. Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Gomez, Paul Goldschmidt, Giancarlo Stanton, and Billy Hamilton make up 60% of that list, and each of them was taken early or at high prices in most drafts.
The player with the fifth-highest 5x5 YTD value in MLB might come as a surprise: Michael Brantley (LF, CLE).
His five-category output explains why his returns have been so high:
.316 BA, 15 HR, 65 RBI, 70 runs, 11 SB
Only four OF have posted 15+ HR and 10+ SB so far this season: Gomez, McCutchen, Trout, and Brantley.
Let’s take a deeper look at Brantley in an effort to see if his hot first half is legit.
Background
Brantley was drafted in the seventh round of the 2005 amateur draft at age 18 by the Milwaukee Brewers. He is the son of former major leaguer Mickey Brantley.
Scouts liked his speed and strike zone judgment, but his lack of power limited his upside and his inconsistency on defense was a concern. He was viewed more as a fourth-OF type than an impact MLB regular early in his minor-league career.
At the end of the 2008 season, Brantley was traded from the Brewers to the Indians in the deal that sent C.C. Sabathia from the Indians to the Brewers.
Minor League History
Brantley did not crack many top prospect lists during his time through the minors. In fact, he barely made Baseball America’s list of MIL’s Top 30 prospects when he was in their system.
This may have been a blessing in disguise, as he was not rushed through the minors. He skipped High-A but had a full season’s worth of AB at both Double-A and Triple-A.
Here are the raw stats posted by Brantley during the parts of six seasons that he spent in the minors:
Year Age Level AB BA HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS ==== === ======== === ==== == === == == == == ==== 2005 18 Rookie 173 .347 0 19 22 13 14 5 .802 2005 18 Rookie 34 .324 0 3 6 4 2 0 .807 2006 19 Low-A 360 .300 0 42 61 51 24 7 .741 2007 20 Low-A 218 .335 2 32 31 22 18 6 .853 2007 20 Double-A 187 .251 0 21 29 25 17 3 .647 2008 21 Double-A 420 .319 4 40 50 27 28 8 .793 2009 22 Triple-A 457 .267 6 37 59 48 46 5 .711 2010 23 Triple-A 273 .319 4 29 34 28 13 5 .820
A few things stand out about Brantley’s background:
- He was consistently a .300 hitter in the low minors
- He proved that he could make adjustments and solidified his high-BA profile by hitting .300 in his second stints in Double-A and Triple-A
- He had more walks than strikeouts at every level in the minors
- He was consistently an efficient basestealer
- He only posted a .400+ Slg in two of his eight stints in the minors
MLB History
Brantley was called up to CLE in late 2009 and broke camp in 2010 with them. After going back-and-forth between Triple-A and CLE during the 2010 season, Brantley stuck with CLE starting in the 2011 season.
Year AB BA HR RBI BB% CT% Eye G/L/F PX Spd ==== === ==== == === === === ==== ======== == === 2009 112 .313 0 11 7% 83% 0.42 47/26/27 31 108 2010 297 .246 3 22 7% 87% 0.58 48/20/32 50 120 2011 451 .266 7 46 7% 83% 0.45 49/20/31 82 111 2012 552 .288 6 60 9% 90% 0.95 49/23/29 75 108 2013 556 .284 10 73 7% 88% 0.60 47/23/30 72 108
An inability to loft the ball seemingly capped Brantley’s power ceiling, an observation confirmed by his consistently mediocre power skills.
Brantley’s elite batting eye in the minors did not initially carry over from the minors to MLB. That changed in 2012. That’s when his contact rate reached an elite level and his batting eye soared.
2014 Results
Let’s insert Brantley’s 2014 results into his MLB stats and skills line:
Year AB BA HR RBI BB% CT% Eye G/L/F PX Spd ==== === ==== == === === === ==== ======== === === 2009 112 .313 0 11 7% 83% 0.42 47/26/27 31 108 2010 297 .246 3 22 7% 87% 0.58 48/20/32 50 120 2011 451 .266 7 46 7% 83% 0.45 49/20/31 82 111 2012 552 .288 6 60 9% 90% 0.95 49/23/29 75 108 2013 556 .284 10 73 7% 88% 0.60 47/23/30 72 108 2014 399 .316 15 65 8% 91% 0.94 46/27/27 113 88
The most noticeable change can be seen in Brantley’s big HR spike. It has been supported by a corresponding jump in PX, as well as a huge surge in hard contact and line drives:
Year HctX LD ==== ==== === 2009 68 26% 2010 98 20% 2011 111 20% 2012 100 23% 2013 92 23% 2014 131 27%
Reports suggested that Brantley increased his training regimen in the off-season and added significant muscle.
He also has become much more proficient at hitting fastballs with authority.
Check out his production by pitch type in 2013, specifically his feeble ISO power against four-seamers and cutters (data provided by BrooksBaseball.net):
Now look at how he is mashing both four-seamers and cutters so far in 2014:
While Brantley is hitting the ball with more authority, he has been the beneficiary of a HR-per-flyball rate that is more than double the highest level he had previously shown:
Year HR/F ==== ==== 2009 0% 2010 4% 2011 6% 2012 4% 2013 7% 2014 15%
In more detail, Brantley’s HR/F rates have been extremely high against four-seamers and cutters compared to other pitches (data courtesy of BrooksBaseball.net):
Brantley’s HR/F against cutters has increased from 9% in 2013 to 20% in 2014. His HR/F against four-seamers has gone up from 3% in 2013 to nearly 11% so far in 2014.
It's clear that Brantley’s HR/F-fueled HR spike merits further analysis. We will revisit that in a bit.
However, his elite BA does not. His .328 xBA is the highest in MLB and has been fueled by his elite 91% ct% and his surge in hard contact.
As Brantley’s power has blossomed, his speed skills have declined:
Year SB Spd ==== == === 2009 4 108 2010 10 120 2011 13 111 2012 12 108 2013 17 108 2014 11 88
Adding more bulk to his frame has likely contributed to this dip.
Interestingly, this decline has not been noticeable in his SB results because he has become even more efficient on the basepaths. His SB success rate by year over the last three seasons:
Year SB% ==== === 2012 57% 2013 81% 2014 92%
Getting a green light on the basepaths is becoming increasingly difficult for Brantley, a fact that makes little sense given how efficient he is at stealing bases:
Year SBO% ==== ==== 2009 21% 2010 15% 2011 15% 2012 13% 2013 13% 2014 10%
It seems intuitive that the green light given to Brantley should increase given his surging and elite SB success rate. If he can tap into his previously strong speed skills again, that combination could help him show the 30+ SB upside he flashed in the high minors.
Batted Ball Distance
One of the best ways to validate a batter’s HR/F is to look at his batted ball distance. Given Brantley's seemingly inflated HR/F, let's complete that exercise on him.
The average batted ball distance among batters this season is 279.54 feet (data courtesy of BaseballHeatMaps.com).
Here is Brantley’s batted ball distance trend along with how it ranks among MLB batters:
Year HR/F Distance MLB Rank ==== ==== ======== ======== 2010 4% 270.28 282 2011 6% 266.13 265 2012 4% 269.80 227 2013 7% 276.45 187 2014 15% 281.62 126
It’s noticeable that Brantley’s batted ball distance has been steadily increasing over the last few seasons.
That said, the above data also shows that there are 125 batters this season with a higher batted ball distance than Brantley. His mark is just slightly above the MLB-average level.
This suggests that his high HR/F has little chance of sticking. In fact, its decline has been evident so far in July:
Month HR/F ===== ==== Apr 17% May 19% Jun 17% Jul 10%
As a hitter who hits a lot more groundballs and line drives than flyballs, Brantley’s likely continued HR/F decline makes it very probable that his HR output will decline significantly in the second half.
PITCHf/x Plate Discipline Metrics
Strong plate discipline is one of Brantley’s primary calling cards.
Brantley’s PITCHf/x plate discipline metrics bring to light a couple of interesting trends about his plate approach.
First, a couple of definitions:
- Swing%: % of pitches a batter swings at (MLB average in 2013 = 46%)
- Z-Swing%: % of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone (MLB average in 2013 = 63%)
Here are those plate discipline metric trends for Brantley during his career:
Year Swing% Z-Swing% ==== ====== ======== 2009 33.8% 46.0% 2010 36.8% 48.3% 2011 37.9% 50.3% 2012 40.5% 57.1% 2013 41.7% 59.6% 2014 41.7% 60.7%
Brantley has started to put his pitch recognition to good use. He has increased his rate of swinging at pitches inside the strike zone for five consecutive seasons. That increasing skill has helped Brantley make a lot more hard contact this year.
His higher rate of swinging at more pitches inside the strike zone has increased his hot zones significantly from 2013 to 2014 (data courtesy of ESPN.com):
Finally, let’s look at the location of Brantley’s batted balls to see if he’s a hitter who uses the entire field or not (data provided by Fangraphs.com):
The left-handed Brantley sprays flyballs all around the park. With a continued increase of his batted ball distance, some of those long flyballs to center-field could start to leave the park. However, it’s clear that his HR power is generated entirely by pulling pitches as all of his HR have been to right field. His lack of opposite-field power caps his overall power ceiling.
Conclusions
With firmly elite plate skills and increased aggressiveness at pitches thrown inside the strike zone, Brantley should continue to provide a high batting average and a lot of hard contact.
His efficiency on the basepaths makes him a near-lock for 15+ SB, with many more possible if his opportunities to steal bases increase.
What’s not likely to continue at its current pace is Brantley’s HR output. Even though he's hitting fastballs with more authority, his mediocre batted ball distance makes it unlikely that he can sustain his current 15% HR/F. He will need to find a way to loft the ball more to become a sustained HR threat.
At age 27, Brantley is entering the prime of his career and remains a strong hold in keeper leagues. View him as a multi-category contributor—especially in BA, SB, and runs—but not one who will maintain his current elite level of power.
Please visit our prior F/F Spotlight features here:
Adrian Gonzalez | Martin Perez | Dayan Viciedo | Alex Gordon | Homer Bailey | Zack Greinke | Phil Hughes | Chase Utley | Evan Longoria | Pedro Alvarez | Brandon McCarthy | Brian Dozier | Mike Leake | Jose Quintana
For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.
