FANALYTICS: My Personal First Round

It bears repeating... Last year's performances tend to grossly inflate our expectations for this coming year. And it is doing us a huge disservice.

From a psychological perspective, it's tough to get past this. Last year is a natural point of reference. It is recent. It's still the most accessible performance data in our heads. However, we would never project a player's stats from last season alone. Yet that is exactly what it seems like we're doing.

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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.