FACTS/FLUKES: Adames, J. Jimenez, Andrus, Green, and Canha

Adames looks for spark... In 2018, Willy Adames (SS, TAM) posted a double-digit R$ with a .278, 10 HR, 34 RBI, 43 R, and 6 SB performance in 288 at-bats. In 2019, he has provided double-digit HR again but with a lower batting average and fewer SB. Through 408 at-bats, he is hitting .248 with 15 HR, 37 RBI, 52 R and 4 SB. What do his skills suggest about his performance?

Year   AB  HR/SB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%    G/L/F   HctX   PX/xPX  hr/f  Spd  SBO
====  ===  =====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ====  =======  ====  ===  ===
2016^ 486   9/11  .249   N/A   12   72     N/A     N/A   93/N/A   N/A  113  12%
2017+ 506   9/10  .258   N/A   11   70     N/A     N/A   85/N/A   N/A  111  10%
2018  288  10/ 6  .278  .211   10   67  52/18/30    86   83/ 89   17%  128  12%
2019  408  15/ 4  .248  .246    8   71  48/22/29   103   94/ 95   18%  108   5%
^AA MLEs
+AAA MLEs

While he has a $8 R$, his skills have stayed below average: 

  • Even with a lower SB total, he has maintained his above-average Spd. While he has seen fewer SBO, his four stolen bases in five attempts is an improvement over his 56% SB% from 2018. His 28.3 ft/sec sprint speed is in the 83rd percentile in the majors. 
  • Although his xPX has remained below average and his GB% can limit his HR total, his growing HctX and his slightly above-average 5.6% Brls/PA (165th in MLB) are positive signs. When he does hit it in the air, his average exit velocity on fly balls has increased from 91.4 MPH in 2018 to 93 MPH in 2019. With a 17% career-hr/f, he can make a run at 20 HR in the current MLB environment. 
  • While the expected batting average regression (38% h% in 2018) has happened, his HctX and xBA point to a BA near league average. Even though his Spd can help, he has fewer infield hits (5.1% IFH%) in 2019. 
  • Although a 21% h% vL is playing a role in his .525 OPS vL, his 68% ct%, 6% bb%, 84 PX, and 0.20 Eye need some improvement versus southpaws. 

Even with a slightly below-average xPX and a heavy GB%, Adames' increasing HctX, exit velocity on fly balls, and steady hr/f point to a HR total that could finish near 20 HR. He pairs some power with above-average Spd, but fewer SBO have cut into his SB total. While he has improved his SB% in 2019 and still has above-average Spd, owners should expect a SB total more in line with his six SB from 2018 with fewer SBO. With some h% regression and struggles vL, his HctX and xBA say he can provide an average BA in 2019. He has more value in keeper leagues, but his current skills (8 BPV) still have some work to do. 

 

Jimenez eyes saves... During the 2018 and 2019 seasons, owners have targeted Joe Jimenez (RHP, DET) as a possible saves source at the end of drafts. While he only recorded three saves in 2018, he has logged two saves in August since the Tigers traded Shane Greene to Atlanta. Through 46 IP, his three wins, three saves, 65 strikeouts, 4.66 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP have provided $3 worth of R$. Does he has the skills for ninth-inning work?

Year  IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl   Dom  Cmd  FpK  SwK    G/L/F   H%/S%  hr/f  BPV   LI
====  ==  ====  ====  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  =====  ====  ===  ====
2017  44  6.46  5.85  4.5   9.6  2.2  62%  13%  34/23/43  39/63   13%   64  0.55
2018  63  4.31  3.83  3.2  11.2  3.5  53%  14%  36/19/45  33/64    7%  130  1.08
2019  46  4.66  3.87  3.5  12.6  3.6  65%  15%  29/25/46  32/69   18%  140  1.10
*-Inc. MLEs

Yes, his above-average skills can help the back of a bullpen:

  • With a four-seam fastball (15% SwK) heavy approach, his slider (15% SwK) and change-up (15% SwK) can still create swings and misses too. With a strong SwK, his double-digit Dom is secure. 
  • Inducing fewer ground balls with a consistent FB% and a hr/f surge has affected his ERA. His 12% career-hr/f and xERA claim he deserves a better ratio fate. With some ERA improvement, his ERA could finish in the mid-4.00s. 
  • Throwing more FpK is a good indicator, but his Ctl has remained more in line with his 3.4 career Ctl. With a strikeout-first approach, his current WHIP is a reasonable outcome. 
  • Sustaining his LI bodes well for save chances, but blowing four saves in seven tries adds some risk.  

Jimenez's skills are worth targeting, and his growing SwK supports a double-digit Dom going forward. While his FB% carries ERA risk, his career-hr/f and xERA point out that he can improve his current ERA. Even though his Ctl is in line with his career line, his better FpK provides a chance at possible Ctl improvement. Carrying over his LI with strong skills say he deserves some ninth-inning chances, and meeting his seven projected saves would increase his $R value. 

 

Andrus delivers SB... After missing time with injuries and seeing fewer stolen base opportunities in 2018, there were concerns about how many bases Elvis Andrus (SS, TEX) would steal in 2019. For those owners that needed speed, his 25 swipes have helped. Through 447 at-bats, his .284, 9 HR, 58 RBI, 58 R, and 25 SB have led to a $30 R$. Can he finish with 30+ SB for the first time since 2013?

Year   AB  HR/SB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%    G/L/F   HctX   PX/xPX  hr/f  Spd  SBO
====  ===  =====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ====  =======  ====  ===  ===
2015  596   7/25  .258  .265    7   87  47/21/32   104   67/ 70    4%  106  22%
2016  506   8/24  .302  .289    8   86  48/24/29    95   80/ 68    6%  139  21%
2017  643  20/25  .297  .289    6   84  49/20/32   104   97/ 80   12%  115  22%
2018  395   6/ 5  .256  .255    7   83  50/19/31   104   67/ 59    6%  131   8%
2019  447   9/25  .284  .279    5   84  50/22/28   117   67/ 82    8%  115  26%

With increased SBO, his Spd and SB% say he has the wheels for 30+ SB: 

  • While his above-average Spd has continued, gaining back SBO and pairing it with an 83% SB% plays well. Although his sprint speed is in the 47th percentile in MLB, his SBO and SB% gains support a return to 30 SB. 
  • With his HctX increase and a return to his 32% career-h%, his above-average ct% and xBA say that he can continue to provide a BA above league average. 
  • Outside of a hr/f increase from 2017, his below-average xPX and GB% have not provided much power. His 2.5% Brls/PA is below average at 353rd in the majors, and his 5% career-hr/f claims that his 20 HR finish from 2017 is not returning.  

Andrus has provided $30 R$ value with his legs in 2019. His above-average Spd, increased SBO, and SB% gains point out that a 30-SB season would be a fact. With consistent ct%, increasing his HctX has helped his batting average, and his xBA points to a BA that finishes above average. While he owns a below-average xPX and plenty of ground balls cap his HR total, he could hit a few more HR to finish with double-digit HR. Although 30+ SB are harder to come by after age 30, his stolen bases have been supported by skills. 

 

Green sees fortune shift... Coming off of his eight wins, 94 strikeouts, 2.50 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP finish in 2018, Chad Green (RHP, NYY) was a LIMA target at the end of 2019 drafts to help ratios. Unfortunately, he has not helped ratios in 2019, as he has two wins and two saves with a 5.59 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Has he lost some skills in 2019?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl   Dom  Cmd  FpK  SwK    G/L/F   H%  S%  hr/f  BPV   LI
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  ==  ==  ====  ===  ====
2016   46  4.73  3.81  3.0  10.2  3.5  60%  13%  41/21/38  33  77   25%  124  0.68
2017   69  1.83  2.62  2.2  13.4  6.1  66%  16%  26/27/47  25  79    7%  186  0.95
2018   76  2.50  3.36  1.8  11.2  6.3  69%  14%  31/23/46  32  83   10%  162  1.12
2019   48  5.59  4.05  2.4  11.5  4.8  67%  13%  36/23/41  40  67   16%  156  1.00 

Not really, his skills (156 BPV) are strong, but his H%/S% fortunes and hr/f have shifted: 

  • He's still missing bats with his slider (18% SwK) and four-seam fastball (12% SwK). With an above-average SwK, the strikeouts should continue. 
  • His 67% FpK and 2.4 Ctl remain close to his 66% career FpK and 2.2 career Ctl. 
  • Although he has gained some GB% in 2019, his FB% carries ERA risk when hitters own an 8.2% Brls/PA (36th highest in MLB) and 96.3 MPH exit velocity on LD/FB (17th highest in MLB) against him. His inflated ERA isn't all deserved, as his 32% career-H%, 77% career-S%, and xERA say he deserves better ratios. 

While the ratio results have changed in 2019, Green's strong skills haven't. He backs his above-average SwK with two pitches that create swings and misses, and his SwK supports continued whiffs. Throwing consistent FpK has kept his Ctl in line with his career numbers, but some shift in fortune has been a factor in his elevated ratios. Although his hard-contact allowed, Brls/PA, and exit velocity allowed carry ERA risk, his career H% and S% contribute to a projected 3.71 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over the last six weeks. Even though he won't repeat his double-digit R$ from 2017 and 2018, his skills are still LIMA-worthy. 

 

Canha increases HR total... Mark Canha (OF, OAK) hit .249 with 17 HR in 2018 while adding 52 RBI and 60 R in 365 at-bats. He has picked up his home-run pace in 2019, as he has his 18 HR in 275 at-bats while hitting .258 with 36 RBi and 52 R. Those fantasy owners in deep leagues have earned a profit so far, as his performance has resulted in $9 R$. Can he maintain his HR pace?

Year   AB  HR    BA   xBA   vL    vR   bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX  xPX  hr/f
====  ===  ==  ====  ====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  ===  ===  ====
2015  441  16  .254  .252  .587  .821    7   78  42/18/40  29   107  111  114   11%
2016   41   3  .122  .190  .632  .352    0   51  36/18/45  11    81  167  157   30%
2017  173   5  .208  .227  .581  .689    4   68  33/20/47  28    77  123   75    9%
2018  365  17  .249  .259  .941  .665    8   76  38/22/40  28   104  123  114   15%
2019  275  18  .258  .254  .846  .911   14   73  42/16/42  29    88  130   93   21%

While he has improved his skills and vR, his below-average xPX and HctX have doubts:

  • After increasing his HctX and xPX in 2018, his falling HctX and xPX doubt his power pace. His 5.4% Brls/PA (181st in MLB) is just above league average, and his 92.7 MPH exit velocity on fly balls has held steady. A hr/f increase has helped his efforts, and a 27% hr/f helped his six HR in July, even with a 73 xPX and 82 HctX in July. Even though pulling the ball more may help his power, his xPX and HctX expect his HR pace to slow down. Recently, his 106 HctX and 108 xPX have improved in 46 August at-bats.  
  • Improving his Eye to a 0.62 Eye is encouraging, and maintaining some of his 2018 ct% gains can continue to help BA. Even with below-average HctX, his xBA and ct% point to a BA that won't hurt a roster. 
  • His power growth and 139 PX vR have been supported by a 93.1 MPH exit velocity on fly balls with a 329 feet average fly-ball distance vR. He's pulling 52% of his balls in play vR. 

After giving back some of his HctX and xPX gains from 2018, it will be difficult to maintain his HR pace. Luckily, he's growing his skills in other areas. Drawing more walks and keeping some of his ct% gains have improved his Eye, and his xBA points to a slightly above-average BA. His growth vR has been supported with a 0.56 Eye, and his exit velocity growth on fly balls vR has contributed to a stronger PX vR. Even if his HR pace slows, his career-high skills (67 BPV) contribute to a projected $10 R$ going forward. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.