FACTS/ FLUKES: Dozier, Gordon, Bassitt, Osuna, Alberto

Dozier finally arrives ... There are few bright spots in Kansas City these days, but one is Hunter Dozier (OF, KC), the former first-round pick who finally seems to be realizing his potential with a .284/.363/.557 season so far. Do his skills say this level of production is repeatable?

Year   AB  HR    BA   xBA   bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX/xPX  hr/f
====  ===  ==  ====  ====   ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  =======  ====
2016* 505  17  .259  .255     8   71  45/18/36  33    53  136/ 44    0%
2017^ 100   3  .200   N/A     9   49    N/A     37   N/A  160/N/A   N/A
2018  362  11  .229  .236     6   70  30/21/37  30   116  110/132   12%
2019  370  22  .284  .269    11   74  33/22/45  33   128  143/171   18%
*Includes MLEs
^Triple-A MLEs

Yes, Dozier's emergence is fully supported by his BPIs:

  • The gains in bb% are eye-popping and show that Dozier is forcing pitchers to throw him strikes. At the same time, his ct% has also improved.
  • Dozier's HR total has doubled from a year ago in roughly the same number of ABs. He's hitting more fly balls and hr/f shows more of them are clearing outfield fences.
  • The combination of putting the ball in play more often and improved hard contact has also translated into a high BA and xBA.

Success wasn't immediate for Dozier, but he's finally found his footing in the big leagues and emerged as a contributor in several offensive categories. At 27, Dozier has emerged as a solid producer who should be able to continue his current level of production and could have power upside and could produce more runs and RBIs with a little more talent around him.

 

Gordon slowing down ... Speedster Dee Gordon (2B, SEA) is on the way to his worst season since he missed half the year because of a PED suspension. This year, the culprit has been injuries, which have limited him to fewer than 300 ABs. But at age 31, are the skills eroding, too?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%   H%   HctX   G/L/F    Spd/SBO  RSPD  SB   SB%
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===   ==   ====  ========  =======  ====  ==   ===
2016  325  .268  .257    5   83   32    57   59/19/23  203/41%   244  30   81%
2017  653  .308  .281    4   86   36    56   58/23/20  199/39%   233  60   79%
2018  556  .268  .271    2   86   31    64   55/22/22  158/33%   165  26   71%
2019  281  .278  .258    4   84   32    69   54/19/27  134/27%   150  17   85%

Gordon hasn't changed as a hitter, but he's not the burner he was in his prime:

  • Gordon still rarely walks and has above-average ct%.
  • A slap hitter, he continues to put the ball on the ground where he can utilize his speed.
  • Spd and RSpd show Gordon's losing speed and a declining SBO% suggests the Mariners realize it and aren't giving him the same freedom on the basepaths.

It's impossible to say how much of Gordon's slowdown is owed to a strained quad that has cost him playing time in the second half. What is clear is that Gordon's speed skills have been fading (also confirmed by Statcast sprint speed scores, which have likewise fallen 4 straight years.) The good news is Gordon has been a more efficient basestealer this season after leading baseball in CS last year with 12. And because SBs are a rarer commodity these days, even a basestealer in decline, like Gordon, is retaining a little more of his value than he would otherwise.

 

Bassitt stable, not spectacular ... Chris Bassitt (RHP,OAK) didn't figure to be an integral part of Oakland's rotation, but with injuries and the Frankie Montas suspension that's how it has turned out. And Bassitt's answered the bell with a 3.56 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 20 starts. Can we count on these results moving forward?

Year  IP   ERA   xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  HR/9  FpK  SwK  BPV    
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  =====  ====  ===  ===  ===   
2017*  38  7.95   --   4.1  5.4  1.3    -----   37/54   0.8   --   --  27
2018   48  3.02  4.35  3.6  7.7  2.2  45/22/34  28/78   0.8  59%   7%  65   
2019  114  3.56  4.47  3.6  8.2  2.6  42/20/38  27/75   1.3  61%   9%  86   
* MLEs

Nothing stands out in Bassitt's skill set and he's been a little lucky:

  • Bassitt's getting a few more Ks than he did in limited exposure a year ago, but Dom and Ctl rates are each slightly trail league average. 
  • For a pitcher who relies heavily on his sinker, Bassitt's GB% is middle of the road.
  • Bassitt has given up a few too many HRs, though it should be noted that 13 of the 16 he's allowed have come away from the Oakland Coliseum (-16% LHB HR).
  • Bassitt's ERA is nearly a full run below his xERA thanks to a little help from H% and S%.

Three years removed from Tommy John surgery, the 30-year-old Bassitt has given the A's something they sorely lacked: a dependable starter. That said, these are solidly middle-of-the road skills and there's nothing to suggest he's ready to take a step up. For fantasy purposes, Bassitt is the quintessential innings-eater who won't help, but probably won't hurt you, either.

 

Is Osuna among the elite?  ... Roberto Osuna (RHP, HOU) was all his owners could have expected in the first half, except for maybe a few more saves. It's been another story since the All-Star break with  a 5.02 ERA and an opponents' OPS of .862. Is Osuna still in elite territory among closers?

Year    IP/SV   ERA/xERA  Ctl   Dom   Cmd  FpK  SwK   H%  S%   G/L/F   hr/f  BPV
====    =====  =========  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===   ==  ==  ======== ====  ===
2017    64/39  3.38/2.65  1.3  11.7   9.2  64%  17%   31  60  48/18/34   6%  202
2018    38/21  2.37/3.50  0.9   7.6   8.0  75%  15%   30  75  41/25/34   3%  130
2019    49/26  2.98/3.78  1.5   9.5   6.4  65%  16%   25  73  36/23/41  11%  145
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
'19-2H  14/ 9  5.02/4.07  2.5  10.0   4.0  62%  18%   29  64  35/28/38  20%  126

Osuna's season-long BPIs aren't up to 2017 levels, but they're still plenty good:

  • Osuna's Ctl hasn't been quite as crisp as in previous years, especially so far in the 2H, but even his current rate is solidly above average. And Dom has rebounded from a year ago.
  • He's allowing more fly balls since joining the Astros and hr/f has bitten him recently.
  • Osuna's BPV is still in elite territory. Even amid his 2H stumble, BPV shows he's been better than his ERA reflects over that span.

While Osuna's struggles over the past month are raising some questions in Houston, it's key to remember it's a tiny sample size and his whole body of work should ease longer-term concerns among fantasy owners. The 24-year-old fireballer has solidly closer-worth skills, though probably good enough to rank among the game's elite.

 

Can Alberto keep it up?  ... To say Hanser Alberto (BAL, 2B) came out of nowhere to lead the Orioles in batting average would be an understatement. He's been DFA'd by the Yankees and Orioles already this year and had a week-long stay with the Giants before Baltimore re-claimed him off waivers again in March. Can he continue to hit. 300?

Year   AB   HR SB   BA  xBA   bb%  ct%  HctX  h%   G/L/F   PX   xPX  
=====  ===  == ==  ==== ====  ===  ===  ====  ==  =======  ===  ===   
2017    20   1  0  .306  ---    4   83   ---  --   ------   86   --    
2018*  361   5  0  .280  ---    2   91   ---  --   ------   52   --
2019   377   7  4  .318 .276    3   90    83  34  47/22/32  53   52       

Alberto's unlikely to provide much value moving forward:

  • Though he draws few walks, Alberto has been a master of putting the bat on the ball when he swings.
  • Alberto's PX and xPX, as well as HctX, show he does little damage beyond flicking singles into the OF.
  • He's managed to outhit his xBA thanks to some help from h%

With exceptional contact skills and positional versatility (he's played both middle IF positions and some OF) the 26-year-old Alberto has made himself a useful piece for a rebuilding Orioles. That said, the BA is unlikely to stand the test of time and he has little power and not enough speed to be a SB asset for fantasy owners. So while he's been a surprising BA play this far, Alberto isn't someone to count on moving forward. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.