DAILY MATCHUPS: Ryu, Bauer, and Peacock top Sunday's ratings

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day as identified by the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today's schedule overview: Sunday's full slate on Father's Day features seven NL matchups, seven AL matchups, and one interleague matchup, which will take away a DH position from Texas. The BOS at BAL matchup starts the afternoon slate at 1:05 p.m., and CHC at LA is the Sunday evening matchup at 7:05 p.m. A chance of rain could affect the BOS at BAL, TEX at CIN, STL at NYM, and ARI at WAS matchups. Be sure to check updated weather forecasts closer to first pitch on Sunday. 

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Strong Starts (top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable)

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Hyun-Jin Ryu (L) LA vCHC 1.98 1.70 1.94 2.58 1.71 5 2 5 3 2
  Trevor Bauer (R) CLE @DET 1.27 2.94 0.73 0.83 0.56 2 3 4 3 4
  Brad Peacock (R) HOU vTOR 1.13 1.73 0.68 1.20 0.89 4 4 1 4 2
  Griffin Canning (R) LAA @TAM 0.99 1.57 0.68 1.57 0.12 5 2 3 2 4
  Sonny Gray (R) CIN vTEX 0.96 1.59 0.81 0.46 0.98 2 3 4 2 2
  Chase Anderson (R) MIL @SF 0.86 0.79 0.90 1.06 0.70 2 2 2 2 3
  Mike Foltynewicz (R) ATL vPHI 0.86 1.27 0.51 1.24 0.42 2 4 2 2 2

Sonny Gray (RHP, CIN) continues to keep the ball on the ground with a 57% GB%, and his 3.47 xERA points to a decent ERA rating. The Rangers' top-five offense vs. RHP could present a challenge, and the right-hander's 55% FpK and 3.5 Ctl could cut into his WHIP effectiveness. He supports his strikeout rating with an 11% SwK, and a decent chance for a win moves him up the ratings. 

Mike Foltynewicz (RHP, ATL) owned a 2.04 ERA and 3.59 xERA vs. PHI in 35 IP in 2018. His 12% SwK points to a favorable strikeout rating, and his 2.4 Ctl says he can keep WHIP in check. Four out of his last five GS have resulted in a PQS-DEC rating, and he has a 4.50 ERA in his last five GS. Giving up more home runs at Sun Trust Park carries some ERA risk, as he owns a 7.18 home ERA (6.80 home FIP). 

 

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50)

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  James Paxton (L) NYY @CHW 0.47 1.19 -0.07 -0.01 0.77 4 2 4 1 0
  Chris Archer (R) PIT @MIA 0.45 1.63 0.25 -0.12 0.05 0 0 4 2 2
  John Means (L) BAL vBOS 0.27 -0.02 -0.35 0.57 0.86 0 0 4 4 2
  Martin Perez (L) MIN vKC 0.21 0.45 0.25 -0.41 0.54 4 0 1 1 1
  Mike Leake (R) SEA @OAK 0.16 -0.13 -0.08 0.78 0.08 1 2 2 4 4
  Anibal Sanchez (R) WAS vARI 0.10 0.38 -0.21 0.46 -0.25 0 2 4 3 1
  Cole Irvin (L) PHI @ATL -0.11 0.53 -0.39 0.02 -0.60 5 1 1
  Dakota Hudson (R) STL @NYM -0.15 -0.23 0.11 -0.69 0.22 3 3 2 3 5
  Jason Vargas (L) NYM vSTL -0.15 0.47 -0.37 -0.09 -0.60 3 1 4 5 1
  Jeff Samardzija (R) SF vMIL -0.21 0.51 -0.34 0.21 -1.20 1 3 2 3 2
  Jakob Junis (R) KC @MIN -0.22 0.73 -0.86 0.35 -1.11 4 3 3 2 4
  Zachary Godley (R) ARI @WAS -0.28 -0.58 -0.21 -0.08 -0.25 2 1 0 1 1
  Spencer Turnbull (R) DET vCLE -0.34 0.43 -0.34 -0.37 -1.06 0 3 2 1 3
  Sandy Alcantara (R) MIA vPIT -0.40 -0.11 -0.14 -0.79 -0.55 5 1 2 5 3
  Tanner Anderson (R) OAK vSEA -0.45 -0.76 -0.53 0.06 -0.58 2
  Nick Margevicius (L) SD @COL -0.46 -0.66 -0.75 -0.32 -0.10 0 2 0 1 3

James Paxton (LHP, NYY) has posted back-to-back PQS-DIS starts at TOR and vs. NYM. The lefty's 15% SwK and 11.8 Dom point to a helpful strikeout total. While he owns a 65% FpK, he has a 3.7 Ctl and five walks in his last seven IP. Handing out more walks and giving up more home runs in away starts have contributed to his 6.86 away ERA. While his ratio ratings show some risk, his win rating and strikeout rating are worth a start. 

Chris Archer (RHP, PIT) continues to create swings and misses, and his 13% SwK points to a strong strikeout rating against Miami's 25% K% vs. RHP. Although his 5.90 ERA in his last five GS and a 4.78 xERA don't bode well for ERA, the Marlins are a bottom-five offense vs. RHP. A spacious Marlins Park could help his 8.71 away ERA, as home runs and a 54% hard-contact allowed rate on the road have hurt his efforts. His 3.0 career Ctl expects his current 4.5 Ctl to improve. 

John Means (LHP, BAL) takes on a Red Sox lineup that is an average offense against southpaws. In two starts versus Boston, the lefty has struck out seven and allowed two ER in 12 IP for a PQS-4 and a PQS-3. While his 7.8 Dom and strikeout rating temper expectations for strikeouts, his 2.6 Ctl and 1.10 WHIP point to a favorable WHIP rating. Boston is an above-average away offense, and his 4.43 xERA and ERA rating add ERA risk to his start. 

Martin Perez (LHP, MIN) has not fared well in his last five GS, as he has four consecutive PQS-DIS results and a 5.60 ERA in his last five GS. His 12% SwK can provide a decent strikeout total, and he has missed more bats in home starts with a 25% K%. The lefty's 4.2 Ctl carries WHIP inflation risk. While he owns a 4.51 xERA, a matchup with Kansas City's bottom-five offense could help his ERA efforts. His decent chance for a win moves him up the rankings. 

Mike Leake (RHP, SEA) enters a matchup with Oakland's below-average offense vs. RHP with two consecutive PQS-4 outings vs. HOU and at MIN. In two starts vs. OAK, the right-hander has struck out ten hitters while allowing six ER in 13.1 IP for a PQS-5 and a PQS-2. His 8% SwK could cap his strikeout totals, but his 66% FpK and 1.6 Ctl contribute to a strong WHIP rating. The right-hander has allowed more away home runs with a 39% away FB% and 45% away hard-contact allowed rate, which adds ERA risk. 

Anibal Sanchez (RHP, WAS) owns a 1.97 ERA in his last five GS, and he draws Arizona's average offense vs. RHP on Sunday. While he has posted a 62% FpK, his 4.6 away Ctl with more home runs allowed has contributed to a 4.91 away FIP. His 10% SwK can add some strikeouts, but a 5.04 xERA and a lower ERA rating point to some risk. In seven road starts, he has one PQS-DOM, three PQS-DEC results, and three PQS-DIS outings. 

Cole Irvin (LHP, PHI) takes the mound against Atlanta's above-average offense vs. LHP. The Braves have been the best offense in the majors in June. The lefty's 68% FpK and 2.5 Ctl can help WHIP, but his 40% FB% and 4.70 xERA contribute to a negative ERA rating. 

Dakota Hudson (RHP, STL) faces New York's average offense vs. RHP. His 62% GB% has contributed to a 3.47 ERA (4.38 xERA), but his 4.1 Ctl and 1.50 WHIP can inflate a roster's ratios. In an April 21 start vs. NYM, he struck out five and gave up three ER in five IP for a PQS-1. He has posted better results in his last five GS, as he has posted a 1.99 ERA with a PQS-DOM and four PQS-DEC outings. 

Jason Vargas (LHP, NYM) earns mostly negative ratings against St. Louis' slightly below-average offense vs. LHP. Allowing harder contact and his 4.99 xERA contribute to a negative ERA rating. His FpK has dipped to 58%, and his 3.7 Ctl points to possible WHIP risk. The lefty has two PQS-DOM outings and two PQS-DIS results in his last five GS. 

Jeff Samardzija (RHP, SF) carries a 10% SwK and a 7.4 Dom into a matchup against the Brewers' slightly above-average lineup vs. RHP. The right-hander has had more success in home starts, as his 21% K% has contributed to an 8.2 home Dom. His 4.86 xERA and ERA rating carry risk, but his 63% FpK and 1.21 WHIP point to a positive WHIP rating. While he has a 42% hard-contact allowed rate and 40% FB% in home starts, he has allowed fewer home runs (8% hr/f) at Oracle Park. 

Jakob Junis (RHP, KC) takes on the Twins, who have been the best offense in the majors vs. RHP. His 10% SwK and 8.1 Dom can lead to a decent strikeout total. Giving up more home runs on the road has contributed to his 4.93 away ERA and negative ERA rating. The right-hander's 65% FpK and 2.4 career Ctl say he can provide WHIP aid, and his lower chance for a win slides him down the ratings. 

Zachary Godley (RHP, ARI) makes his first start since May 18 against Washington's below-average lineup vs. RHP. While his 61% S% probably won't last, his negative ERA rating and 4.99 xERA illustrate the possibility for inflating a roster's ERA. His 4.1 Ctl has led to a 1.50 WHIP, and four-consecutive PQS-DIS results may have owners waiting on better results. 

Spencer Turnbull (RHP, DET) draws a start against Cleveland's below-average offense vs. RHP. His 12% SwK can lead to some strikeouts, but his 4.11 xERA points that he could inflate ERA. In an April 11 start vs. CLE, he struck out four and gave up three ER in four IP for a PQS-1. A lower chance for a win moves him down the ratings. Monitor his control, as he has a 3.4 Ctl, but fewer FpK in May and June point to some possible WHIP risk.  

Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) has posted a 1.69 ERA with two PQS-DOM outings in his last five GS. Although he owns a 12% SwK, Pittsburgh doesn't swing and miss that often (20% K%) against RHP. The walks and his 1.37 WHIP contribute to a negative WHIP rating, and his 4.89 xERA doesn't have faith against the Pirates' average offense vs. RHP. Allowing fewer home runs at Marlins Park has contributed to a 3.25 home ERA. 

Nick Margevicius (LHP, SD) takes the mound against a Colorado lineup that has been a strong home offense. In a May 12 outing at Coors Field, the lefty struck out five and gave up five ER in five IP for a PQS-2. The southpaw's 4.82 xERA and 41% hard-contact allowed rate point to a negative ERA rating. With three PQS-DIS outings and a 7.57 ERA in his last five GS, a start at Coors Field carries plenty of ratio risk. 

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below)

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Ariel Jurado (R) TEX @CIN -0.66 -0.25 -0.87 -0.03 -1.48 2 2 2 2 2
  Trent Thornton (R) TOR @HOU -0.68 0.20 -0.89 -0.63 -1.39 3 3 2 0 1
  Jose Quintana (L) CHC @LA -0.69 0.07 -0.49 -0.12 -2.21 2 1 2 4 1
  Peter Lambert (R) COL vSD -0.71 -0.59 -1.33 -0.29 -0.62 5 1
  Brian Johnson (L) BOS @BAL -1.64 -1.74 -2.10 -1.37 -1.36 0
  Odrisamer Despaigne (R) CHW vNYY -1.82 -1.27 -2.58 -1.63 -1.80 0
  Ryne Stanek (R) TAM vLAA -1.95 -7.84 0.21 0.44 -0.62 2 1 1 2 1

Jose Quintana (LHP, CHC) has a 4.29 ERA and two PQS-DIS outings in his last five GS. His 9% SwK and 7.9 Dom are below league average, and his 5.13 away ERA contributes to a negative ERA rating. His 46% away hard-contact allowed rate and 20% away hr/f carry ratio risk. 

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.      

                 Overall SP Rating
                    SP      by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES and ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10 p.m. ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.