DAILY MATCHUPS: Greinke, deGrom among Friday's top starters

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day. The Daily Matchups column works hand-in-hand with the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today’s schedule overview: There are 13 games on the schedule today, with first pitch coming at 7:05pm when the Nationals host the Royals in the lone interleague game on the slate. No games are forecasted to be threatened by rain. Hot and humid conditions will be the norm across the league today.

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Strong Starts (Top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Jacob deGrom (R) NYM vPHI 2.43 3.23 2.10 2.90 1.49 3 4 4 3 2
  Justin Verlander (R) HOU vLAA 1.93 3.32 0.89 2.49 1.00 5 4 4 4 1
  Zack Greinke (R) ARI vCOL 1.91 1.11 1.92 2.59 2.01 4 4 1 3 5
  Clayton Kershaw (L) LA vSD 1.60 1.55 1.42 1.76 1.65 4 2 5 0 3
  Masahiro Tanaka (R) NYY @TAM 1.26 1.11 1.23 1.69 1.00 0 3 5 0 0
  Eduardo Rodriguez (L) BOS @DET 1.03 1.65 0.52 0.75 1.20 2 3 3 2 3
  Martin Perez (L) MIN vTEX 0.56 0.84 0.43 0.23 0.74 1 1 5 0 5

Jacob deGrom (RHP, NYM) is coming into this start on a hot streak as he has tossed a PQS-DOM in three of his last six starts. In his six June starts he had a 51/4 K/BB in 40 IP while sporting a 2.94 xERA and 201 BPV. He has made 14 career starts versus the Phillies where he is 7-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 86 IP.

Zack Greinke (RHP, ARI) has thrown a PQS-DOM in three of his last five starts, although one of his hiccups was a PQS-1 versus the Rockies. In his other two starts versus them this season he threw a PQS-2 and PQS-3. The Rockies own a .660 OPS on the road which is the worst in MLB. He is limiting left-handed batters to a .212 BA and .575 OPS.

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP, BOS) has underperformed his skills in the first half of the season (4.79 ERA/4.02 xERA). The light-hitting Tigers own the AL's lowest team OPS. They do hit southpaws a little bit better than that, but this is still an excellent opportunity for Rodriguez to close that ERA/xERA gap.

Martin Perez (LHP, MIN) has throttled same-side hitters both this season (.610 oOPS) and for his career (.647 oOPS). That's a very useful skill against these Rangers, whose lineup skews heavily to the left side. The TEX offense sports substantial left/right and home/road splits this year, Perez falls on the good side of both of those tendencies tonight.


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Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Drew Pomeranz (L) SF vSTL 0.44 1.32 0.53 0.13 -0.22 4 2 1 2 3
  Dylan Bundy (R) BAL @TOR 0.41 1.50 -0.44 0.51 0.05 0 3 3 2 0
  Brendan McKay (L) TAM vNYY -0.04 0.67 0.23 0.03 -1.07 3
  Austin Voth (R) WAS vKC -0.04 -0.27 -0.14 0.06 0.19 3 1
  Vince Velasquez (R) PHI @NYM -0.06 0.95 0.06 0.73 -1.99 1 0 2 3 2
  Brett Anderson (L) OAK @SEA -0.28 -0.79 -0.31 -0.26 0.24 3 3 2 0 3
  Dakota Hudson (R) STL @SF -0.36 -0.55 0.49 -0.81 -0.56 3 5 1 4 0
  Julio Teheran (R) ATL vMIA -0.39 0.16 -0.86 -0.95 0.10 4 2 0 0 0
  Steven Brault (L) PIT vMIL -0.45 0.25 -0.87 -1.21 0.05 1 3 3 1 2

Drew Pomeranz (LHP, SF) is tough to consider as a viable option when he look at his 6.25 ERA, however in eight starts at home his ERA is 3.53. Right-handed batters have an outstanding .957 OPS against him. Over his last five starts he has pitching particularly well, going 1-2 with a 3.33 ERA, 3.79 xERA, 12.6 Dom, 3.8 Cmd, and 145 BPV. 

Dylan Bundy (RHP, BAL) has earned the loss in each of his last four starts and has only one PQS-DOM under his belt through 16 starts this season. His skills this season are almost identical to last season including a 2.0 hr/9 and 18% hr/f. Last season he faced the Blue Jays four times with two resulting in a PQS-DOM and two resulting in a PQS-DIS. The Blue Jays have struggled at home with the bats as they only have a .219 BA and .694 OPS. 

Brendan McKay (LHP, TAM) is set to make just his second MLB start and he truly impressed in his initial time out. In that start he went six shutout innings, allowing just one H and one BB while striking out three. In 11 starts this season between AA and AAA he went 6-0 with a 1.22 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 88/15 K/BB in 66 IP. The Yankees seem like an extremely tough matchup, but they have not been as good against left-handed pitching as they have a .235 BA and .705 OPS.

Austin Voth (RHP, WAS) has put up a PQS-3 and PQS-1 over his two starts this season. Today he is a nice option if you are looking for a possible win. The opposing Royals lineup owns a .247 BA and .715 OPS on the season, putting them down toward the bottom of MLB. 

Vince Velasquez (RHP, PHI) has been in and out of the rotation this season. In his nine starts, he is 1-4 with a 4.83 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. None of those nine starts have resulted in a PQS-DOM. Back on April 24 he made a start versus the Mets which resulted in a PQS-3. He has struggled on the road where in 34 IP he has a 5.50 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

Brett Anderson (LHP, OAK) does not have a PQS-DOM to his credit through 17 starts this season. His two starts against the Mariners have both resulted in a PQS-2. His surface stats show he is having a solid season (8-5, 3.92 ERA), although his skills tell another story (5.07 xERA, 4.5 Dom, 1.5 Cmd, 27 BPV). In 10 career starts at Safeco Field he is 3-3 with a 2.37 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.

Dakota Hudson (RHP, STL) has alternated tossing a PQS-DOM and PQS-DIS across his last four starts. He is holding right-handed batters to a .619 OPS, yet left-handed batters have a great .947 OPS when facing him. The opposing Giants are averaging just 3.3 runs per game at home where they have a poor .226 BA and .648 OPS. 

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Jordan Yamamoto (R) MIA @ATL -0.51 0.66 -1.41 -0.70 -0.60 4 5 3 2
  Adrian Sampson (R) TEX @MIN -0.56 TBD -1.03 0.35 -1.56 4 2 0 3 3
  Brad Keller (R) KC @WAS -0.73 -0.64 -0.78 -0.79 -0.69 3 4 1 2 0
  Yusei Kikuchi (L) SEA vOAK -0.76 -0.17 -1.03 -1.10 -0.74 0 0 1 1 2
  Andrew Heaney (L) LAA @HOU -0.80 0.17 -0.79 -0.39 -2.17 2 2 0 1 2
  Aaron Sanchez (R) TOR vBAL -0.89 -0.20 -0.88 -1.93 -0.55 0 0 0 0 1
  Eric Lauer (L) SD @LA -1.02 0.00 -1.14 -0.79 -2.15 2 2 1 4 2
  Zach Davies (R) MIL @PIT -1.10 -1.25 -1.33 -1.37 -0.45 1 0 0 0 1
  Gregory Soto (R) DET vBOS -1.45 -0.62 -1.56 -1.96 -1.67 0 1 1 2 0
  Antonio Senzatela (R) COL @ARI -1.47 -0.80 -1.04 -1.52 -2.51 1 0 3 5 0

Jordan Yamamoto (RHP, MIA) has flashed some strong results through his first four MLB starts where he has gone 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He can thank a 19% H% for those results as his 4.57 xERA, 1.9 Cmd, and 47 BPV would indicate that regression is coming. Today he will face the toughest task he has thus far as the Braves own a .841 OPS at home. 

 

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

                               Overall SP Rating
                   SP       by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES AND ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10pm ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.