DAILY MATCHUPS: Gray, Bieber among Tuesday's top starters

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day. The Daily Matchups column works hand-in-hand with the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today’s schedule overview: All 30 teams have a game on the schedule today, with first pitch coming at 2:05pm when the Rangers host the Angels in the first game of a double-header. There are three interleague games on the schedule, including the Phillies-Red Sox, Indians-Mets, and Blue Jays-Dodgers. Rain is possible for the Royals-Orioles game. 

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Strong Starts (Top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Shane Bieber (R) CLE @NYM 2.38 2.48 1.83 2.64 2.32 4 4 1 5 5
  Clayton Kershaw (L) LA vTOR 2.32 3.15 2.13 3.00 1.25 5 3 4 3 2
  Aaron Nola (R) PHI @BOS 1.87 1.94 1.66 1.68 2.20 5 2 5 1 4
  Michael Pineda (R) MIN vCHW 1.73 1.80 1.40 1.85 1.88 2 2 4 2 2
  Sonny Gray (R) CIN vSD 1.43 2.51 0.92 0.96 1.32 4 1 4 3 4
  Dallas Keuchel (L) ATL vMIA 1.37 1.29 1.38 0.72 2.09 3 1 3 1 4
  Domingo German (R) NYY @OAK 1.18 1.98 0.64 1.28 0.82 0 3 4 1 4
  Stephen Strasburg (R) WAS @PIT 1.12 1.95 0.70 1.25 0.58 4 5 2 4 0
  Aaron Sanchez (R) HOU vDET 1.01 1.27 0.86 0.58 1.34 3 3 4 3 0
  Tommy Milone (L) SEA @TAM 0.96 0.70 0.86 1.78 0.49 4 3 2 2 2

Shane Bieber (RHP, CLE) is demonstrating elite ace level skills this season (11.1 Dom, 6.1 Cmd, 65% FpK, 15% SwK, and 173 BPV). Over his last five starts he has been fantastic, going 3-2 with a 1.89 ERA and 44/5 K/BB in 38 IP. He has been better on the road this season where in 11 starts he is 8-2 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 78 IP. The Mets offense is clicking in August as they are averaging 5.7 runs per game and have a .849 OPS. 

Sonny Gray (RHP, CIN) has thrown a PQS-DOM in three of his last five starts over which time he is 3-0 with a 1.54 ERA. In 13 home starts this season he is 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 68 IP. The skills he is displaying over his last eight starts have been very good (3.20 xERA, 11.3 Dom, 3.5 Cmd, 142 BPV). He is limiting left-handed batters to a .192 BA and .576 OPS. 

Dallas Keuchel (LHP, ATL) will be making his third start against the Marlins this season. The first two resulted in a PQS-4 and PQS-1. The PQS-DOM against them came at home where in five starts he is 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. After two tough outings to open his campaign, over his last nine starts he owns a 3.72 xERA and 93 BPV. The opposing Marlins own a .676 OPS versus left-handed pitching which is the worst mark in MLB. 

 

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Dylan Bundy (R) BAL vKC 0.27 0.86 -0.14 0.23 0.13 3 0 3 4 1
  Steven Matz (L) NYM vCLE 0.25 0.80 0.80 0.87 -1.48 3 5 2 3 4
  Cole Hamels (L) CHC vSF 0.16 0.38 0.14 0.14 -0.04 2 1 4 0 0
  Brock Burke (L) TEX vLAA 0.14 -0.66 0.34 0.45 0.42  
  Tyler Beede (R) SF @CHC 0.14 1.08 -0.14 0.20 -0.57 2 0 0 3 2
  Chris Archer (R) PIT vWAS 0.02 1.74 -0.40 -0.20 -1.08 2 0 4 3 3
  Michael Wacha (R) STL vMIL -0.05 0.06 -0.11 -0.16 0.03 3 2 0 0 1
  Alex Young (L) ARI vCOL -0.10 -0.23 -0.28 -0.14 0.24 2 0 4 0 0
  Andrew Heaney (L) LAA @TEX -0.13 0.65 -0.59 0.35 -0.92 2 2 2 3 4
  Jalen Beeks (L) TAM vSEA -0.27 0.34 -0.07 -0.34 -0.99 0 1 2
  Brad Keller (R) KC @BAL -0.42 0.15 -0.68 -0.53 -0.63 4 3 4 1 3
  Gio Gonzalez (L) MIL @STL -0.43 0.24 -0.51 -0.70 -0.73 1 4 2 1 1

Dylan Bundy (RHP, BAL) is having a trainwreck type of season at home where he has allowed 14 HR in 12 starts, while going 1-8 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. The results over his last seven starts have been especially ugly as he owns a 6.06 ERA due somewhat to a 57% S%. Right-handed batters have had his number with a strong .874 OPS. 

Cole Hamels (LHP, CHC) is in terrible form as he has tossed a PQS-DIS in three of his last four starts. Each of his last two have resulted in a PQS-0 where he has allowed 12 ER over five innings. The good news is that he faces the Giants at home today. The opposing Giants have just a .694 OPS against left-handed pitching which is fourth worst in MLB. In his nine home starts he is 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP across 57 IP.

Chris Archer (RHP, PIT) has had his best results this season when pitching on five days rest. He has made nine starts in that situation, going 2-2 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. Earlier this season he faced the Nationals with that start resulting in a PQS-5. He comes into this start in great form as over his last three he owns a 25/4 K/BB in 17 IP. Across his last eight starts he is 0-3 with a 4.80 ERA, however with a strong skill set (3.83 xERA, 12.2 Dom, 3.6 Cmd, 141 BPV).  

Alex Young (LHP, ARI) is in the middle of a meltdown as three of his last four starts have resulted in a PQS-0. Over his eight MLB starts he owns a 3.98 ERA, although his 4.81 xERA reveals some downside. In his lone start versus the Rockies he threw six no hit innings in a PQS-3. The Rockies offense has been poor on the road where they have a .230 BA and .675 OPS. He is limiting left-handed batters to a .113 BA and .543 OPS.

Andrew Heaney (LHP, LAA) comes into this start off of his first PQS-DOM of the season. Underneath his mediocre results are some decent skills (10.2 Dom, 3.2 Cmd, 109 BPV). He took on the Rangers once already this season, a PQS-3 back on May 26. In four career starts at Texas he is 0-3 with a 9.00 ERA, 2.11 WHIP, and 16/12 K/BB in 19 IP. 

Jalen Beeks (LHP, TAM) has served this season mostly as a long man out of the bullpen. Out of the three starts he has made, two have resulted in a PQS-DIS. One of those starts came against the Mariners which resulted in a PQS-1 on August 9. He owns a 5.18 xERA over his last six appearances and has not been good at home where he owns a 5.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 38 IP. The Mariners offense has been brutal in August where they are averaging just 3.3 runs per game while having a .210 BA and .656 OPS. 

Brad Keller (RHP, KC) has been better recently after a horrendous April and May. He has thrown a PQS-DOM three times over his last eight starts where he has a 4.37 xERA, 51% GB%, and 89 BPV. Those are not eye popping skills, but could easily be good enough against an Orioles lineup that struggles against right-handed pitching (.241 BA, .717 OPS). In his 16 road starts he has been especially bad, going 3-8 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. 

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Homer Bailey (R) OAK vNYY -0.66 -0.14 -0.82 -0.36 -1.32 0 4 3 0 5
  Joseph Palumbo (L) TEX vLAA -0.67 -1.21 -0.65 -0.81 TBD 1 0
  Cal Quantrill (R) SD @CIN -0.74 0.02 -1.27 0.10 -1.82 3 2 1 5 2
  Kyle Freeland (L) COL @ARI -0.88 -0.64 -1.00 -1.15 -0.74 3 0 2 1 2
  Spencer Turnbull (R) DET @HOU -0.89 0.60 -1.39 -0.91 -1.84 0 2 3 2 3
  Reynaldo Lopez (R) CHW @MIN -0.97 0.95 -1.60 -0.85 -2.38 4 2 1 3 2
  Sean Reid-Foley (R) TOR @LA -1.49 0.11 -1.76 -1.66 -2.64 2 2 1 1 1
  Elieser Hernandez (R) MIA @ATL -1.51 -0.14 -2.03 -1.36 -2.52 2 2 0 4 2
  Brian Johnson (L) BOS vPHI -1.89 -101 -1.93 -1.84 -2.76 1 3 0 1 1
    LAA @TEX TBD          

Cal Quantrill (RHP, SD) receives a surprising poor rating for today's start if you look at his recent results. Over his last seven appearances he has a 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, albeit with a 4.31 xERA. Right-handed batters have not been able to hit him at all as they have a .190 BA and .540 OPS.  

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

                               Overall SP Rating
                   SP       by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES AND ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10pm ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.