DAILY MATCHUPS: Corbin, Cole headline final Friday slate

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2018 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day as identified by the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today's schedule overview: Friday's full slate features seven NL matchups, eight AL matchups, and one interleague matchup, which will take away a DH position from DET. The first game of the CHW at MIN doubleheader starts at 2:10 PM (EST), and the STL at CHC matchup starts at 2:20 PM (EST). The ATL at PHI and HOU at BAL matchups start the evening slate at 7:05 PM (EST). There is a chance of rain for the STL at CHC and CLE at KC matchups. Be sure to check updated weather forecasts closer to first pitch on Friday. 

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Strong Starts (top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable)

  SP   Tm Opp   RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Hyun-Jin Ryu LA @SF   3.88 2.92 4.35 5.49 2.75 4 3 2 5 4
  Patrick Corbin ARI @SD   2.94 2.38 3.47 4.13 1.79 4 3 3 3 2
  Anthony DeSclafani CIN vPIT   2.26 1.12 2.13 3.09 2.71 1 1 1 1 2
  Adam Wainwright STL @CHC   2.14 1.67 2.50 3.29 1.08 3 1 1 4 4
  Wade LeBlanc SEA vTEX   1.95 1.14 1.71 3.20 1.73 3 2 1 3 3
  Mike Foltynewicz ATL @PHI   1.84 1.90 1.08 1.29 3.08 1 3 5 0 4
  Joe Ross WAS @COL   1.44 0.57 1.10 2.41 1.68 2 2
  Gerrit Cole HOU @BAL   1.22 2.45 0.48 0.34 1.59 3 3 3 2 4
  Tyler Glasnow TAM vTOR   1.02 1.17 1.00 0.54 1.35 4 0 3 4 2
  Brian Johnson BOS vNYY   0.82 0.58 0.62 1.98 0.08 4 2 1 1 0
  Madison Bumgarner SF vLA   0.77 1.50 1.91 2.93 -3.25 4 2 2 2 3
  Eric Lauer SD vARI   0.75 0.92 1.65 2.73 -2.29 0 2 3 2 2
  Kyle Hendricks CHC vSTL   0.67 0.64 1.15 2.47 -1.58 1 2 3 4 5

Adam Wainwright (RHP, STL) draws the Cubs' above-average offense vs. RHP. Walking more batters lowers his WHIP rating, and his 9% SwK and 8.4 Dom lead to a decent strikeout rating. He has posted two PQS-4 results with 15 strikeouts and four ER in his last 12.1 IP. 

Wade LeBlanc (LHP, SEA) has provided decent ratios with a 3.55 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and a 76% S% has helped his efforts. When matching up versus southpaws, Texas has provided slightly below-average production. The lefty's 7.1 Dom and strikeout rating don't support a big strikeout total. In a September 23 outing at TEX, he struck out five and gave up three ER in five IP. 

Joe Ross (RHP, WAS) faces a Colorado offense that is average against RHP and the best home offense in MLB. In two outings, the right-hander has struck out three hitters and given up five ER in 11 IP. His poor ratio ratings add risk at Coors Field. 

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, SF) enters a matchup with the Dodgers' above-average offense vs. LHP, and he has posted a 4.42 xERA and a 1.31 WHIP in the second half. In two outings vs. LA, the southpaw has struck out seven and allowed five ER in 12 IP. While he owns a 63% FpK, his 3.1 Ctl has contributed to a higher WHIP in 2018. 

 

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50)

  SP   Tm Opp   RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Jaime Barria LAA vOAK   0.49 0.44 0.13 1.45 -0.07 3 3 0 1 2
  Michael Clevinger CLE @KC   0.41 1.73 0.04 -0.54 0.42 4 3 3 3 2
  Jose Berrios MIN vCHW   0.20 1.39 -0.35 -0.73 0.48 1 2 3 4 2
  J.A. Happ NYY @BOS   0.09 0.30 0.21 0.43 -0.58 1 3 2 3 2
  Mike Fiers OAK @LAA   0.01 -1.00 -0.11 1.59 -0.43 0 2 3 0 4
  Reynaldo Lopez CHW @MIN   -0.25 -0.53 -1.40 -0.43 1.35 5 4 4 5 4

Jaime Barria (RHP, LAA) has posted a 10% SwK and 54% FpK in the second half. His control has moved up to 3.3 since July, and Oakland has been the best MLB offense in the second half. 

Mike Fiers (RHP, OAK) has sharpened his second-half control with a 68% FpK and 1.9 Ctl. His 1.04 second-half WHIP supports his favorable WHIP rating, and he has a decent chance for a win against an Angels lineup that has been slightly below-average since the All-Star break. His 4.32 xERA and 38% hard-contact rate carry some ERA risk. 

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP, CHW) has thrown five-consecutive PQS-DOM outings, and his September skills have soared to a 154 BPV. His 66% FpK and 13% SwK have backed his 10.0 Dom and 1.3 Ctl. Minnesota has been an average lineup when facing RHP, and the right-hander has registered three PQS-DEC results against the Twins in 2018. 

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below)

  SP   Tm Opp   RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Ian Kennedy KC vCLE   -0.58 0.50 -0.91 -0.98 -0.92 2 1 3 1 3
  Zachary Davies MIL vDET   -0.79 -1.37 -1.06 -0.80 0.09 0 4 0 3 2
  Jose Urena MIA @NYM   -0.80 -0.66 -1.05 -1.27 -0.21 0 4 3 2 2
  Jordan Zimmermann DET @MIL   -0.88 -1.59 -1.60 0.25 -0.59 3 3 1 0 3
  Corey Oswalt NYM vMIA   -1.08 -2.57 -1.10 -0.35 -0.29 2 0 1 2 1
  Thomas Pannone TOR @TAM   -1.30 -0.67 -1.22 -1.23 -2.07 3 0 2 4 3
  Lucas Giolito CHW @MIN   -1.38 -1.61 -1.45 -1.47 -0.98 5 1 2 0 2
  Martin Perez TEX @SEA   -1.58 -1.67 -0.86 -1.55 -2.23 1 0 0 1 2
  Kyle Freeland COL vWAS   -2.04 -1.48 -2.14 -2.11 -2.43 1 3 4 3 4
  David Hess BAL vHOU   -2.11 -1.55 -2.38 -2.43 -2.09 3 2 2 2 2
  Nick Kingham PIT @CIN   -2.20 -3.04 -2.07 -0.49 -3.21 2 0 1 2 0
  Chase De Jong MIN vCHW   -3.23 -2.56 -4.47 -4.02 -1.85 3 2 0
  Jerad Eickhoff PHI vATL   -3.82 -3.10 -5.10 -3.50 -3.58  

Ian Kennedy (RHP, KC) carries a 39% hard-contact rate into a matchup with Cleveland's top-five offense vs. RHP, which brings ratio risk. The right-hander can provide some strikeouts, but negative ratio ratings make him a tough call for owners looking to protect ratios on the final weekend. 

Zachary Davies (RHP, MIL) takes on a Tigers lineup that is a bottom-five offense vs. RHP. The right-hander has improved his skills (97 BPV) in the second half with a 7.1 Dom, 1.9 Ctl, and 68% FpK. His 3.69 xERA and 1.11 WHIP in the second half could play well against Detroit, as they have been a bottom-five second half offense. 

Jose Urena (RHP, MIA) is scheduled to make a start vs. the Mets average offense vs. RHP, even though he has a right thigh injury. After showing stronger skills in the first half, his 6.4 Dom and 3.2 Ctl have led to a 4.47 xERA and 1.15 WHIP in the second half. In 17 IP against NYM, the right-hander has a 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. 

Thomas Pannone (RHP, TOR) rematches with the Rays after striking out five and allowing two ER in 6.2 IP in a September 22 start. His ratio ratings have some doubt versus Tampa Bay's above-average lineup vs. RHP. While he owns a 52% FB%, 20% of those stay in the infield, and his soft-contact rate is 28%.

Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW) has induced more ground balls in the second half, and posting a 3.6 Ctl has contributed to his 1.29 WHIP since July. The Twins have been an average offense against RHP, and the right-hander owns a 3.28 ERA and 5.77 xERA vs. MIN in four outings. 

Kyle Freeland (LHP, COL) could hurt ratios with his 4.16 xERA, as he takes on Washington's slightly above-average lineup vs. LHP. The southpaw has given up more home runs (14% hr/f) at Coors Field in 2018, and a 49% home GB% has boosted his efforts. In the second half, his 10% SwK has led to an 8.1 Dom.  

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ALL NEW FORMAT FOR 2018!

Our Starting Pitcher Matchup Scores algorithm has been completely revamped for 2018. Based on this research piece from Arik Florimonte, we now calculate a pitcher's individual Matchup Score for a single start by first calculating an individual score representing his potential performance for each rotisserie category, and then rolling those into an overall rating for the day's start. 

This rating assesses each starter's outlook on a given day, taking into account the pitcher’s inherent ability, recent performance, strength of defense, ballpark, and opposition’s offense recent history.

There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.      

                 Overall SP Rating
                    SP      by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.