DAILY MATCHUPS: Bieber, Fried among Tuesday's top starters

As a way to preview the day's games, the 2019 Daily Matchups column will provide a list of all SP scheduled to start that day. The Daily Matchups column works hand-in-hand with the HQ Pitcher Matchup tool (also available as an 8-day scan). It will group the day's SP into strong starts, judgment calls, or weak starts and will provide an analysis of the most noteworthy SP along the way. Tips on how to best use these SP tools can be found in this 2019 GM's OFFICE column.

For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factorsteam indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.

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Today’s schedule overview: All 30 teams have a game on the schedule today, with first pitch coming at 7:05pm when the Phillies host the Mets. There are five interleague games on the day, with the Orioles hosting the Padres, the Brewers hosting the Mariners, the Astros hosting the Pirates, the Cardinals hosting the Athletics, and the Angels hosting the Reds. Rain is probable for the White Sox-Red Sox game in Boston. 

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Strong Starts (Top tier starts rated >1.0; starts in 0.50-0.99 range also favorable):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Max Scherzer (R) WAS @MIA 3.57 4.39 3.14 4.03 2.70 3 5 5 4 5
  Gerrit Cole (R) HOU vPIT 2.98 3.71 2.65 2.97 2.60 3 1 4 4 1
  Shane Bieber (R) CLE vKC 2.79 2.23 2.71 3.30 2.93 2 4 0 5 4
  Jack Flaherty (R) STL vOAK 1.18 1.80 0.85 1.48 0.59 4 3 0 2 4
  Max Fried (L) ATL @CHC 1.13 1.57 1.05 0.60 1.31 2 0 2 0 3
  Robbie Ray (L) ARI vLA 0.94 2.89 0.66 0.58 -0.39 2 4 4 3 2
  Andrew Heaney (L) LAA vCIN 0.92 1.22 0.67 1.30 0.47 3 3 2 2 0
  David Price (L) BOS vCHW 0.91 0.26 1.51 1.85 TBD 4 4 4 1 2
  Kyle Gibson (R) MIN vTAM 0.91 1.51 1.07 1.02 0.05 4 2 2 5 1
  Blake Snell (L) TAM @MIN 0.64 1.38 0.72 0.81 -0.36 1 2 4 1 0

Shane Bieber (RHP, CLE) comes into today on a roll as he has thrown a PQS-DOM in three of his last four starts. Over those four starts he has shown tremendous skills (2.55 xERA, 12.5 Dom, 7.8 Cmd, 209 BPV). He has made nine starts on the usual minimum of four days rest, going 2-3 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. He will be on four days rest today to face the Royals, who have struggled in June, with a .658 OPS. 

Max Fried (LHP, ATL) has a PQS-4 under his belt against the Braves earlier this season back on April 4. Across his last nine starts however, he has not thrown a PQS-DOM, while he has thrown a PQS-DIS in three. He owns a 6.48 ERA over his last five starts, where he has hit an unlucky rough patch. His skills on the season are strong and should bring better results ahead (3.61 xERA, 53% GB%, 3.5 Cmd, 115 BPV). 

Blake Snell (LHP, TAM) is mired in a slump, as over his last five starts he is 1-2 with a 8.14 ERA, and he has thrown a PQS-DIS in three of those. The worst outing of his career came in his last start, where he lasted just 1/3 of an inning while allowing six ER. He has walked eight across his last two starts, in which he has gone only 3.2 IP. Despite having a 4.40 ERA, his 3.20 xERA is almost identical to his 3.17 xERA last season. He faces the Twins today, who own a .873 OPS against left-handed pitching, which is the best in MLB. 

 

Judgment Calls (Overall ratings from -0.50 to 0.50):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Chad Green (R) NYY vTOR 0.44 -0.41 0.07 1.39 0.71 1 3 3 4 3
  Jesse Chavez (R) TEX @DET 0.41 0.22 0.16 0.61 0.63 2 2 2 3
  Ross Stripling (R) LA @ARI 0.35 -0.58 0.82 0.99 0.17 3 1 4 2 3
  Madison Bumgarner (L) SF vCOL 0.33 0.68 0.21 0.43 TBD 2 1 4 2 1
  Logan Allen (L) SD @BAL 0.08 0.26 -0.44 -0.31 0.80 4
  Tyler Mahle (R) CIN @LAA -0.09 0.33 -0.29 0.20 -0.61 2 2 1 2 4
  Walker Lockett (R) NYM @PHI -0.19 -0.23 -0.55 -0.02 0.06 1
  Chris Bassitt (R) OAK @STL -0.38 0.01 -0.24 -0.21 -1.09 0 1 3 2 3
  Jake Arrieta (R) PHI vNYM -0.50 0.36 -1.01 -0.77 -0.56 4 1 0 2 2

Jesse Chavez (RHP, TEX) makes for an interesting flier as he faces the Tigers. They have really struggled against right-handed pitching, as their .660 OPS is second-worst in MLB. He has started four games this season, however those were all as openers. The deepest he has gone into a game as a starter is three innings, however, in his last outing he went five innings out of the bullpen. He is not going to go deep into the game, although if he makes it through five, there is a strong chance he earns the victory. 

Ross Stripling (RHP, LA) will be making his first start since April 25. He is not fully stretched out, as the maximum number of pitches he has made since that last start in April has been 45. Back on March 29 he made a start against the Diamondbacks which resulted in a PQS-4. In his career opposing batters have a .624 OPS against him in their first plate appearance, while that increases to a .795 OPS when facing him for a second time in the game.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP, SF) has only thrown a single PQS-DOM over his last nine starts. He has allowed six HR over his last four starts, where he owns a 5.01 xERA. Back on April 13, he took on the Rockies at home, which resulted in a PQS-4. The Rockies offense is great at home, yet is very poor on the road, where they have a .228 BA and .668 OPS, which is second-worst in MLB. 

Logan Allen (LHP, SD) was excellent in his MLB debut, where he threw seven shutout innings in a PQS-4 against the Brewers. He will try to repeat that effort versus an inferior Orioles lineup, however Camden Yards does favor right-handed batters (+15% RHB HR). Prior to his call-up, in 13 starts at AAA-El Paso, he was just 4-3 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

Tyler Mahle (RHP, CIN) is coming off a fantastic PQS-4 effort against the high-powered Astros offense. He has flashed strong skills this season (3.65 xERA, 9.3 Dom, 4.4 Cmd, 134 BPV). Even with those strong skills, pitching on the road has been rough, as in nine starts he is 0-6 with a 4.83 ERA. His troubles have mostly been when facing left-handed batters, as they have a .869 OPS against him. 

 

Weak Starts (Overall ratings -0.51 and below):

  SP   Tm Opp RAT K ERA WHIP WIN L5 PQS
  Trevor Richards (R) MIA vWAS -0.61 0.61 -0.21 0.38 -3.20 4 4 4 1 3
  Zach Davies (R) MIL vSEA -0.67 -0.31 -1.35 -0.98 -0.04 2 3 1 0 0
  Jordan Zimmerman (R) DET vTEX -0.72 -0.44 -1.11 -0.20 -1.13 1 0 2 0 2
  Marco Gonzales (L) SEA @MIL -0.72 -0.25 -1.69 -0.60 -0.35 1 0 2 2 5
  Trevor Williams (R) PIT @HOU -1.13 0.02 -0.91 -0.51 -3.10 2 3 4 3 2
  Clayton Richard (L) TOR @NYY -1.31 -0.90 -1.35 -1.74 -1.26 1 1 0 0 0
  Josh Rogers (L) BAL vSD -1.73 -1.80 -2.12 -1.71 -1.30  
  Glenn Sparkman (R) KC @CLE -1.75 -1.71 -1.50 -0.35 -3.43 0 2 1 0 3
  Adbert Alzolay (R) CHC vATL -1.81 -1.12 -2.20 -1.48 -2.42  
  TBD COL @SF            
  TBD CHW @BOS            

Zach Davies (RHP, MIL) seems to be having a nice season, as he is 7-1 with a 3.06 ERA, however, that has by aided by a 82% S%. His 4.94 xERA is almost two full runs higher than his actual ERA. Each of his last three starts have resulted in a PQS-DIS, and he faces a tough challenge today versus the Mariners. They are averaging 5.6 runs per game on the road, where they have a .814 OPS. Left-handed batters have feasted off of him with a .862 OPS. 

Glenn Sparkman (RHP, KC) has made five starts since joining the rotation on May 29. Over those five starts he has a 10/5 K/BB in 25 IP, while none have resulted in a PQS-DOM and three have resulted in a PQS-DIS. He has limited right-handed batters to a .597 OPS, while left-handed batters have a strong .840 OPS. 

Adbert Alzolay (RHP, CHC) is a top prospect in the Cubs system and will be making his first MLB start today. Last week, he made his debut throwing four strong innings out of the bullpen, allowing just one ER while striking out five. In six starts at AAA-Iowa, he went 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Today's opponent will provide a tough test, as the Braves own a strong .800 OPS against right-handed pitching. 

 

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There are roughly 150 starting pitchers in MLB rotations at any given time. For different league sizes, we can estimate the number of SP in the useable pool, and then determine the overall ratings that correspond to worst, 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile SP.

                               Overall SP Rating
                   SP       by SP league percentile
League size       Pool*     .00    .25    .50    .75
==============    =====    ====   ====   ====   =====
12-team “only”     120     -.73   -.22   +.22   +.74
10-team “only”     110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
20-team mixed      110     -.54   -.11   +.30   +.79
15-team mixed      105     -.46   -.05   +.34   +.82
12-team mixed       80     -.07   +.22   +.55   +.97
10-team mixed       60     +.22   +.46   +.74   +1.12

So if you’re in a 12-team “only” league, the median start should have a rating of about 0.2. The 120th start is around -0.7. In a shallower, 15-team mixed, the median start is 0.34 and a top pitcher +0.82.

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EDITOR'S NOTE ON DEADLINES AND ACCURACY: The writer deadline on these articles is noon before the publish day, with a goal to have the column available for subscribers by 10pm ET that evening. There will be instances when weather, managerial decisions, or other factors will take place after the piece is published that will affect the accuracy of the above information. In those instances, we strive to manually update the article by mid-morning at the latest. However, the HQ Pitcher Matchup Tool page is updated automatically and may have the correct data (scheduled starter, all the same component scores in a sortable chart) sooner than this column. Thanks for your understanding. 


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.