BATTERS: Home-road splits, 2018 updated

Let's take an updated look at the batters who have posted the most extreme home/road production and batting eye splits so far in 2018.

This exercise can help you adjust your daily lineups accordingly, and can also help us to spot guys who may be one adjustment away from taking a big step forward.

The following bats own the widest home/road OPS splits:

  • OPS, Home vs. Road
    
    Name                League  Position         OPS Home  OPS Road  Diff
    ==================  ======  ===============  ========  ========  =====
    Judge, Aaron            AL               RF     1.247      .671  +.576
    Wilson, Bobby           AL                C      .758      .255  +.503
    Tocci, Carlos           AL               CF      .751      .255  +.496
    Cave, Jake              AL               CF      .996      .501  +.495
    Rickard, Joey           AL               RF      .913      .428  +.485
    Lopez, Rafael           NL                C      .781      .313  +.468
    Goins, Ryan             AL         SS/2B/3B      .814      .359  +.455
    Reynolds, Mark          NL            1B/3B     1.093      .647  +.446
    Shuck, J.B.             NL               RF      .721      .294  +.427
    McMahon, Ryan           NL         1B/3B/2B      .924      .500  +.424
    Dahl, David             NL               RF      .976      .587  +.389
    Hernandez, Enrique      NL   CF/2B/SS/3B/1B      .905      .554  +.351
    Joseph, Caleb           AL                C      .770      .421  +.349
    Gonzalez, Carlos        NL               RF     1.027      .686  +.341
    Difo, Wilmer            NL         2B/3B/SS      .817      .484  +.333
    Gallo, Joey             AL         3B/LF/1B      .951      .656  +.295
    Machado, Manny          NL            3B/SS     1.084      .794  +.290
    Smith, Mallex           AL               CF      .954      .675  +.279
    Wieters, Matt           NL                C      .828      .549  +.279
    Story, Trevor           NL               SS     1.048      .772  +.276
    Sisco, Chance           AL                C      .730      .454  +.276
    Spangenberg, Cory       NL         3B/2B/LF      .859      .590  +.269
    Maile, Luke             AL                C      .800      .533  +.267
    Rizzo, Anthony          NL               1B      .946      .679  +.267
    Posey, Buster           NL             C/1B      .891      .628  +.263
    Andrus, Elvis           AL               SS      .852      .594  +.258
    Valencia, Danny         FA         3B/1B/DH      .857      .602  +.255
    Kipnis, Jason           AL               2B      .797      .543  +.254
    Arenado, Nolan          NL               3B     1.104      .853  +.251
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Name                League  Position         OPS Home  OPS Road  Diff
    ==================  ======  ===============  ========  ========  =====
    Garcia, Avisail         AL               RF      .512      .922  -.410
    Stassi, Max             AL                C      .518      .916  -.398
    Seager, Corey           NL               SS      .539      .933  -.394
    Cabrera, Melky          AL               RF      .441      .821  -.380
    Romine, Andrew          AL   2B/1B/SS/3B/1B/OF   .291      .653  -.362
    Goldschmidt, Paul       NL               1B      .759     1.112  -.353
    Molina, Yadier          NL                C      .597      .939  -.342
    Garcia, Greg            NL         2B/SS/3B      .464      .800  -.336
    Bruce, Jay              NL               RF      .457      .780  -.323
    Conforto, Michael       NL               LF      .586      .906  -.320
    Reyes, Jose             NL         3B/SS/2B      .455      .763  -.308
    Cozart, Zack            AL               SS      .505      .805  -.300
    Nunez, Renato           AL               3B      .562      .858  -.296
    Gattis, Evan            AL             DH/C      .635      .912  -.277
    Pederson, Joc           NL               CF      .694      .968  -.274  
    Davidson, Matt          AL         DH/1B/3B      .639      .910  -.271
    Zobrist, Ben            NL            2B/LF      .718      .988  -.270
    Gonzalez, Adrian        NL               1B      .534      .803  -.269
    Carpenter, Matt         NL         3B/1B/2B      .828     1.090  -.262
    Fowler, Dexter          NL               CF      .465      .725  -.260
    Dietrich, Derek         NL         3B/LF/1B      .639      .893  -.254
    Holt, Brock             AL         2B/SS/RF      .581      .831  -.250
    Myers, Wil              NL         LF/3B/1B      .674      .924  -.250
    Lowrie, Jed             AL            2B/3B      .692      .942  -.250
    *min 50 PA home/road

These hitters have posted the widest home/road batting eye ratio splits:

  • Eye ratio (BB/K), Home vs. Road
    
    Name                League  Position         Eye Home  Eye Road  Diff
    ==================  ======  ===============  ========  ========  =====
    Soto, Juan              NL               LF     1.55     0.55    +1.00
    Dyson, Jarrod           NL               CF     1.45     0.48    +0.97
    Rizzo, Anthony          NL               1B     1.35     0.50    +0.85
    Wolters, Tony           NL                C     1.25     0.47    +0.78
    Machado, Manny          NL            3B/SS     1.17     0.46    +0.71
    Peraza, Jose            NL            SS/2B     0.85     0.18    +0.67
    Holaday, Bryan          NL                C     0.64     0.00    +0.64
    Diaz, Elias             NL                C     0.92     0.32    +0.60     
    Kepler, Max             NL               RF     1.03     0.43    +0.58
    Fletcher, David         AL         3B/2B/SS     0.78     0.24    +0.54
    Narvaez, Omar           AL                C     1.00     0.46    +0.54
    Freese, David           NL            3B/1B     0.63     0.11    +0.52
    Jankowski, Travis       NL               CF     0.90     0.39    +0.51
    DeShields, Delino       AL               CF     0.83     0.33    +0.50
    Cervelli, Francisco     NL                C     0.94     0.44    +0.50
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Bell, Josh              NL               1B     0.36     1.03    -0.67
    Zobrist, Ben            NL            2B/LF     0.69     1.35    -0.66
    Plawecki, Kevin         NL                C     0.28     0.87    -0.59
    Seager, Corey           NL               SS     0.45     1.00    -0.55
    Morales, Kendrys        AL            DH/1B     0.33     0.88    -0.55
    *min 50 PA home/road

Let's take a closer look at some hitters who own significant home/road production and batting eye splits.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Aaron Judge (RF, NYY) continues to love hitting in Yankee Stadium. He's firmly an elite bat there, where he has put up a .375 BA, 18 HR, 44 RBI, and 1.247 OPS. He has barely been roster-worthy on the road: .204 BA, 8 HR, 17 RBI, .671 OPS. His plate approach is much worse on the road too (0.69 Eye at home, 0.35 Eye on the road).

Max Kepler (RF, MIN) is another bat whose upside comes out when he is hitting at home. He has put up an .844 OPS at Target Field. He really has struggled away from home: .199 BA, .643 OPS. One reason for his large production splits has been his plate approach. He has more walks than strikeouts at home (1.03 Eye). On the road, his batting eye is marginal at best (0.45 Eye). He'll enter 2019 as a premium breakout target.

Omar Narvaez (C, CHW) is unowned in most leagues given his mediocre overall stats. That said, owners in deep leagues can find Narvaez more than useful during his home starts. He has put up a .293 BA and .856 OPS at home, along with excellent plate discipline (1.00 Eye). All of those marks erode significantly on the road (.260 BA, .719 OPS, 0.46 Eye).

Jurickson Profar (SS/3B/1B/2B, TEX) has tapped into his former #1 prospect upside during his 2018 mini-breakout. It especially has been evident at home, where he has posted a .276 BA, .904 OPS, and 0.81 Eye. He has been much less effective away from Arlington: .220 BA, .657 OPS, 0.50 Eye. His ability to play all over the diamond and his top-shelf raw tools give him further upside during his age-26 season in 2019.

Joey Rickard (RF, BAL) has provided some sneaky value while hitting at home. He has a .289 BA, .913 OPS, and 0.56 Eye at Camden Yards. You just don't want to use him on the road, where his entire production and skill foundations have collapsed (.136 BA, .428 OPS, 0.15 Eye).

Mallex Smith (CF, TAM) has helped owners in stolen bases so far in 2018. His value expands further when he hits at home (.365 BA, .954 OPS, 0.75 Eye). His value is relegated to fifth OF use when he plays away from TAM: .250 BA, .675 OPS, 0.34 Eye.
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Josh Bell (1B, PIT) has not been able to build upon his breakout in 2017, a year where he produced 26 HR, 90 RBI, and an .800 OPS in 549 AB. The HR/F fortune that drove that breakout (19% HR/F) has taken a big step back in 2018 (8% HR/F). It's a risk he carries given his continued ground ball stroke (49/19/32 G/L/F). Still, Bell can provide good value if you use him in doses. During his home games, he has produced only 2 HR, 28 RBI, and a .248 BA. His power (6 HR) and production (.859 OPS) are much better on the road. As are his plate discipline metrics (0.36 Eye at home, 1.03 Eye on road).

David Dahl (RF, COL) is a former top prospect whose career has been derailed due to injury. But he has developed into an upper-tier post-hype speculation. He owns a .324 BA and .976 OPS at Coors Field. He has been very bad away from home: .206 BA, .587 OPS. At age 24, it's too early to write him off.

Elias Diaz (C, PIT) has become one of the best second-catcher targets around. His skills and production have flashed frontline-worthy during certain situations. For example, he has a near-elite 0.92 Eye at home compared to a rough 0.32 Eye on the road. His production splits are reversed. He has a strong .893 OPS on the road compared to a so-so .718 OPS at home. He'll have a lot of profit potential heading into 2019.

Enrique Hernandez (CF/SS/2B/3B/1B, LA) has made some subtle gains in 2018 as LA's super-utility guy. For one, he actually has hit righties better than lefties after the reverse held true his prior three seasons (.685 OPS vL, .766 OPS vR). His overall contact rate (79% ct%) has never been better. And his production at home highlights his upside (13 HR, 30 RBI, .905 OPS in 150 AB at home). He struggles to make any kind of impact away from LA (.162 BA, 5 HR, 14 RBI, .554 OPS in 154 AB on road).

Ryan McMahon (1B/3B/2B, COL) is another young COL hitter whose upside is evident when hitting at home. He has delivered a .304 BA and .924 OPS at Coors Field. Those marks have completely tanked on the road (.162 BA, .500 OPS). His plate discipline metrics reveal the same wide gap (0.56 Eye at home, 0.21 Eye on road).

Joc Pederson (CF, LA) has enjoyed a big resurgence in 2018, hitting his way back into a full-time role against RHers. Pederson's bat has been especially potent on the road (.288 BA, .968 OPS in 156 AB). His plate discipline has been good there too (0.73 Eye). He has been a liability during his home starts (.200 BA, .694 OPS, 0.41 Eye).

Trevor Story (SS, COL) has made some nice adjustments during his junior MLB campaign. He has cut down on his strikeouts quite a bit (62% ct% in 2017, 73% ct% in 2018). And if he's hitting at home, you need to have him in your active lineup: .316 BA, 16 HR, 50 RBI, 1.048 OPS. He struggles to produce at an impactful level on the road: .275 BA, 9 HR, 33 RBI, .772 OPS.


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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.