The great myths of projective accuracy

by Ron Shandler

Ashley-Perry Statistical Axiom #3: Skill in manipulating numbers is a talent, not evidence of divine guidance.

Ashley-Perry Statistical Axiom #5: The product of an arithmetical computation is the answer to an equation; it is not the solution to a problem.

Merkin's Maxim: When in doubt, predict that the present trend will continue.

The quest continues for the most accurate baseball forecasting system.

I've been publishing player projections for more than two decades. During that time, I have been made privy to the work of many fine analysts and many fine forecasting systems. But through all their fine efforts at attempting to predict the future, there have been certain constants. The core of every system has been comprised of...