The question, then, is whether we can estimate the "correct" hr/f for a given player. An even more important question is whether we can use that information to predict regression from one season to the next. In two words: yes and yes.

It's almost here--that dreaded day when fantasy baseball ends and all that's left is (gulp) fantasy football. For those still in the running for something: mazel tov!

Here in the homiest of stretches, with just a few weeks left, all players are risky. Prince Fielder could slump or C.C. Sabathia could throw a couple of clunkers. All things being equal, we should still expect the best players to perform the best. But some lesser players will get hot in September, and these guys may just do enough to put you over the top. Here, we will again focus on players who have been playing well as of late, hoping to capitalize on a hot three weeks.