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ROTISSERIE GAMING: The benefit of trading from weakness
Patrick Davitt - July 25, 2008
One of the most common bromides you hear about Rotisserie trading is that you should "deal from strength" in a category - that is, you should deal your surplus in one category to acquire players who will shore you up somewhere else where you are weak.
This is good advice, right up there with "buy low, sell high" as a philosophy for the stock market. Unfortunately, it shares something else with that financial-market folk wisdom: It is easier said than done.
In very competitive leagues, you might well find yourself with no such surplus; even a solid in-the-money team can be holding its spots in categories by thin margins. In such a Roto environment, it can be profitable to consider the exact opposite tactic, by trading from your weaknesses.
Look for example at this Roto squad's current stats:
Ave. HR RBI SB .283 (9 pts) 72 (1) 290 (1) 43 (8) W Sv ERA WHIP 20 (2) 33 (11.5) 5.83 (1) 1.58 (2)
To understand this example, you should also know that this team is 10 HR and 34 RBI short of gaining a second point in those categories. He is tied for the lead in Saves, with two teams just behind and three more in the 20-plus range. He is in a dogfight for SBs, and there is ground to be made in ERA and Br/IP.
Now, adhering to the old idea of "trading from strength," this Roto GM is planning to offer his two closers for power hitters, even though he is far short of gaining any points in those categories. At the same time, if he succeeds in trading his closers, he will lose at least three points in Saves and as many as seven points, depending on to whom he trades them (in addition to the players already poised to pass him anyway, the recipients of the two closers could also go past him in the category). Finally, he would be trading away the potential impact on ERA and WHIP, categories where he could make up ground, and where good closers help more than a lot of Roto players realize.
Suppose that instead this GM accepts the fact that he is out of the running in the power categories and "takes the one" in each. Now he can look around to trade what power he has - granted, it ain't much, which is why he is where he is in those categories - to bolster himself in tighter categories where he is a threat.
For instance, rather than getting rid of closers, he could look to acquire a closer, perhaps from someone still playing the "deal from strength" tactical card. This would solidify his position in Saves, probably help in ERA and Br/IP, and net out to a very real gain.
Or he could swap power for a SB man, or a decent starter to try for a move in the other three pitching categories.
All of this theorizing so far has presumed a team is locked into a last-place finish in a category, known throughout the game as "punting" or "dumping" a category. It makes for the easiest example, because let's face it: When you have a one in a category, any gain is a net gain!
But the tactic works even if you are in the middle of a category, so long as you are at the bottom of a pack with decent distance between you and the team immediately behind:
RBI Al 380 (8 pts) Bob 368 (7) Cal 359 (6) Dave 356 (5) YOU 324 (4) Zeke 301 (3)
Again, rather than trying to trade for RBIs, in the hopes of gaining one point, you might want to accept the fact that you are "locked in" to your four points in RBI, and that you can afford to swap away a decent run producer without allowing Zeke to pass you. In this instance, you can deal profitably with Dave or Cal, who will see the extra points waiting for them with a small boost in RBI, and they might be willing to deal you help. And this tactic is particularly useful if Cal or Dave is competing with you in the overall standings; a point lost by him is the same as a point gained by you.
To sum up: dealing from strength is a wonderful idea but often not practical in a tight league. Dealing from weakness by accepting your position in one category can unlock big gains in others, especially if you deal strategically with an eye on the overall standings. Remember that the key to any trading strategy and tactics has to be the net gains of your trades, including the damage you can do to your nearest competitors.
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