RESEARCH: Deserved home runs, pt 1

Introduction

The Forecaster’s Toolbox defines "Errant Gust of Wind":

A unit of measure used to describe the difference between your home run projection and mine.

While somewhat droll, this definition also contains the core truth: Good or back luck contributes an outsized amount to baseball outcomes in general, and batted ball outcomes in particular. Of perhaps the most interest is the binary outcome that causes the largest swing of all: the home run. 

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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.