HEAD-TO-HEAD: Consistency series, part I—2014 draft values

Introduction

Welcome to Part I of BaseballHQ.com’s 2014 consistency series. Our goal is to provide you with the ability to find players who, week in and week out, will have the most consistent production this season. While it is not too difficult to find consistent players at the top of your draft, Part I of our three-part series focuses on where you can find 2014 draft values. We also highlight those players that are better suited for the rotisserie game.

Quality-Consistency Scores

Quality-consistency scores (QC scores) provide us with a convenient measurement of how consistent a player is. The formula is: (DOM% - (2 x DIS%)) x 2. A player earns a DOMinant week if his BPV is greater than or equal to 50.  A player achieves a DISaster if his BPV is less than 0 for a given week. A week where a player’s BPV is between 0 and 49 is neutral. Players are scored on a scale of 200 (perfect) to -400.

2013’s Elite QC Scores

Below is a list of all players with 6 or more weeks of playing time who had a 2013 QC score of 100 or greater:

NAME          DOM%   DIS%   NEUT%   QC
========      ====   ====   =====   ==
A. Pagan       79%     0%    21%    158
E. Encarnacion 84%     8%    8%     136
M. Holliday    68%     0%    32%    136
J. Votto       67%     0%    33%    134
J. Bautista    71%     5%    24%    122
M. Prado       67%     4%    30%    118
C. Santana     67%     4%    30%    118
I. Kinsler     75%     8%    17%    118
D. Wright      67%     5%    29%    114
C. Davis       78%     11%   11%    112
J. Lowrie      69%     8%    23%    106
M. Trout       74%     11%   15%    104
Y. Grandal     50%     0%    50%    100

A complete list of 2013 QC scores can be found here

That is not a mistake at the top of the list. Angel Pagan (OF, SF) was fantasy baseball’s most consistent performer in 2013. His three-year record of QC scores (74-58-158) suggest that while he may not duplicate his 2013 score this year, he is still is likely to provide late-round consistent value.

Interestingly, consistent production at the top fell off in 2013. In 2011, there were 20 players with QC scores over 100. In 2012, there were 19 players with QC scores over 100. In 2013, just 13 players met this elite threshold. It will be interesting to see whether 2013 proves to be an aberration.

Demographically, fantasy baseball's most consistent performers are generally older players. The average age on the above chart is 29.6. Nine of the thirteen players listed are 30 or older. While fantasy players have a tendency to reach for the shiny new toy on the block, this list suggests (not surprisingly) that experience yields more consistent performance.

2014 Value-Based QC Strategy

When approaching your 2014 drafts, pay particular attention to those players that offer more consistent performances in the later draft rounds. Typically, the players available in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft offer inconsistent head-to-head production. Teams that drafted consistent performers early can destroy their team's otherwise consistent nucleus by drafting inconsistent players late. Focus on QC scores as the draft progresses so that your team does not suffer the same fate.

There are many diamonds in the rough to be mined through our 2013 QC scores. And the best way of doing so is to look at which consistent players provide the best values based on their 2014 NFBC average draft positions (ADP). 

Please note that all rounds referenced below are based on a standard twelve team head-to-head league.

Catchers                                                       

Rank    Player        Team    Avg Pick    QC
====    ========      ====    ========    ==
1       B. Posey      SF      39.25       82
2       C. Santana    CLE     66.17       118
3       W. Rosario    COL     67.67      -24
4       Y. Molina     STL     68.42       38
5       J. Mauer      MIN     69.08       18
6       B. McCann     NYY     83          18
7       S. Perez      KC      84.92      -8
8       J. Lucroy     MIL     88.75       68
9       M. Wieters    BAL     97.5        16
10      E. Gattis     ATL     114.92      32
11      W. Ramos      WAS     149.17      54
12      J. Castro     HOU     154.67      34
13      A. Pierzynski BOS     196.08     -8
14      J. Saltalam.  MIA     207.67      0
15      Y. Gomes      CLE     219.5      -24
16      M. Montero    ARI     229.5      -16
17      R. Doumit     ATL     240.58     -148
18      C. Ruiz       PHI     240.83     -86
19      R. Martin     PIT     261.75     -64
20      T. d'Arnaud   NYM     272.83     -86

The players with the top 5 QC scores are highlighted.

Best consistent value picks: Jonathan Lucroy (C, MIL) (QC score of 68) and Wilson Ramos (C, WAS) (QC score of 54), are the standouts at the catcher position.  If you miss out on the extremely consistent Posey and Santana, Lucroy should be the number one target with his 7% DISaster score and eighth round ADP. Ramos is not being drafted until the thirteenth round.

Better suited for roto: HQ projects a rosy 2014 outlook for Wilin Rosario (C, COL), but with a -24 QC score, it might be a bit of a roller coaster ride to achieve those numbers. Let a league-mate grab him as the projected third catcher off the board.

First Basemen                                                      
Rank    Player         Team    Avg Pick    QC
====    ==========     ====    ========    ==
1       M. Cabrera     DET     1.75        62
2       P. Goldschmidt ARI     3.17        58
3       C. Davis       BAL     8.67        112
4       J. Votto       CIN     16          134
5       P. Fielder     TEX     17.42       68
6       E. Encarnacion TOR     18.42       136
7       F. Freeman     ATL     23.33       56
8       A. Pujols      LAA     40.92       70
9       E. Hosmer      KC      48.92       68
10      A. Craig       STL     52.42       28
11      A. Gonzalez    LAD     55.83       66
12      M. Trumbo      ARI     70.92       0
13      A. Rizzo       CHC     117.33      98
14      J. Abreu       CWS     121.33      N/A
15      M. Adams       STL     136.75     -60
16      B. Belt        SF      137.42      30
17      M. Napoli      BOS     145.75     -52
18      K. Morales     FA      151.25     -8
19      B. Moss        OAK     151.42      64
20      M. Teixeira    NYY     192        -202

The players with the top 5 QC scores are highlighted.  

Best consistent value picks: Overall, first base had some of the most reliable hitters in 2013. Anthony Rizzo (1B, CHC) and his elite QC score of 98 are still available in round twelve.  Joey Votto (1B, CIN) (134) and Edwin Encarnacion’s (1B, TOR) (136) QC scores show that they are worthy of an early draft investment. In round five, target the improving Eric Hosmer (1B, KC) (68), who in the second half of the season had a 0% DISaster rate and a 134 QC score.

Better suited for roto: Mark Trumbo (1B, ARI) may be an upper echelon power source, but with a QC score of 0, and a 2012 score of -44, he is not suited for the head-to-head game.

Second Basemen                                                      

Rank    Player       Team    Avg Pick    QC
====    ======       ====    ========    ==
1       R. Cano      SEA     8.42        54
2       J. Kipnis    CLE     21.92      -80
3       D. Pedroia   BOS     31.83       54
4       M. Carpenter STL     52.08       82
5       I. Kinsler   DET     61.75       118
6       B. Zobrist   TB      75.17       66
7       J. Altuve    HOU     97.08      -16
8       B. Phillips  CIN     98.25       24
9       J. Gyorko    SD      100.17     -8
10      D. Murphy    NYM     104.25      32
11      A. Hill      ARI     104.83      46
12      C. Utley     PHI     133.33      50
13      H. Kendrick  LAA     163.42     -8
14      J. Profar    TEX     175.42     -52
15      B. Dozier    MIN     190.08     -28
16      N. Walker    PIT     224.33     -8
17      A. Rendon    WAS     225.25      10
18      E. Bonifacio KC      251.92     -146
19      K. Wong      STL     265.25     -300
20      O. Infante   KC      291.25      82

The players with the top 5 QC scores are highlighted.

Best consistent value picks: At second base, the QC scores show that the best values are in the middle rounds with Matt Carpenter (2B, STL) (82), Ian Kinsler (2B, DET) (118) and Ben Zobrist (2B, TB) (66). Omar Infante's (2B, KC) QC score of 82 offers great late round value, but be wary of a repeat, as his 2011 and 2012 QC scores were 52 and 16, respectively.

Better suited for roto: Let someone else use a second round pick on Jason Kipnis (2b, CLE).  He had a DISaster rate of 44% and has had two straight second half collapses, as noted in the Baseball Forecaster.

Shortstop                                                      

Rank    Player        Team    Avg Pick    QC
====    ==========    ====    ========    ==
1       H. Ramirez    LAD     10.08       46
2       T. Tulowitzki COL     10.75       82
3       J. Segura     MIL     26.58       0
4       J. Reyes      TOR     38.42       22
5       I. Desmond    WAS     38.83      -24
6       E. Andrus     TEX     52.08      -88
7       E. Cabrera    SD      85.83      -54
8       S. Castro     CHC     121.75     -98
9       J. Lowrie     OAK     140.75     106
10      J. Hardy      BAL     142.75      50
11      A. Simmons    ATL     150.5       90
12      A. Ramirez    CWS     159.92      44
13      X. Bogaerts   BOS     165.25    -142
14      A. Cabrera    CLE     169.42     -16
15      J. Rollins    PHI     181.25      12
16      J. Peralta    STL     186.58      18
17      B. Miller     SEA     189.08      54
18      J. Villar     HOU     213.58    -220
19      E. Aybar      LAA     219.08      40
20      A. Escobar    KC      230.75     -62

The players with the top 5 QC scores are highlighted.

Best consistent value picks: Brad Miller (SS, SEA) had the fourth highest QC score among qualifying shortstops and is available in fifteenth round. Jed Lowrie's (SS, OAK) QC score of 106 was the eleventh best in the league in 2013. However, his F health score should give you pause. Andrelton Simmons (SS, ATL) also offers an elite QC score (90), and 20 homerun upside. He is a great pick in round thirteen.

Better suited for roto: Ian Desmond (SS, WAS) is coming off two consecutive seasons of .280+ batting average and 20 home runs.  But his 3-year QC scores of -148, -40 and -24 demonstrate that you cannot rely on him on a week-to-week basis. His instability does not merit an early fourth round pick.

Third Basemen
                                                     
Rank    Player           Team   Avg Pick   QC
====    ===========      ====   ========   ==
1       E. Longoria      TB      19.23    -6
2       A. Beltre        TEX     19.46     98
3       D. Wright        NYM     27        114
4       R. Zimmerman     WAS     60.08     0
5       J. Donaldson     OAK     66.31     20
6       P. Alvarez       PIT     83.23    -24
7       M. Prado         ARI     99.15     118
8       M. Machado       BAL     105.85    76
9       K. Seager        SEA     119       24
10      C. Headley       SD      147.69   -16
11      B. Lawrie        TOR     148.85    20
12      A. Ramirez       MIL     161.38    42
13      P. Sandoval      SF      161.85    8
14      N. Arenado       COL     163.38    28
15      T. Frazier       CIN     212.85   -6
16      W. Middlebrooks  BOS     214.31   -64
17      M. Dominguez     HOU     248.15   -8
18      C. Johnson       ATL     254.54   -68
19      D. Freese        LAA     268.38   -48
20      N. Castellanos   DET     268.54   -80

The players with the top 5 QC scores are highlighted.

Best consistent value picks: If you miss out on the two elite options at the top, don't sleep on Martin Prado (3B, ARI). His excellent QC score of 118 was no fluke based on his 2011 and 2012 scores of 88 and 98, respectively.  In the ninth round, he can help balance out some of the more volatile performers on your team. While Aramis Ramirez's (3B, MIL) health is a concern, in the fourteenth round, he provides good value.

Better suited for roto: Pedro Alvarez (3B, PIT) has elite PX and xPX scores, and 40 homerun upside, but with a QC score of -24 (and '11 and '12 scores of -60, -186), it's clear his value comes in streaks.

Outfield                                                     

Rank    Player           Team    Avg Pick    QC
====    ========         ====    ========    ==
1       M. Trout         LAA     1.31        104
2       A. McCutchen     PIT     4.31        90
3       C. Gonzalez      COL     10.31      -80
4       A. Jones         BAL     10.38       48
5       R. Braun         MIL     11.08       30
6       J. Ellsbury      NYY     13.62       32
7       B. Harper        WAS     15.54       20
8       Y. Puig          LAD     21.77       0
9       G. Stanton       MIA     26.08      -18
10      J. Bruce         CIN     28         -16
11      C. Gomez         MIL     28.92      -24
12      A. Rios          TEX     36.62       0
13      J. Bautsta       TOR     40.69       122
14      M. Kemp          LAD     42.69      -142
15      J. Upton         ATL     45         -20
16      S. Choo          TEX     50.31       58
17      H. Pence         SF      50.62       60
18      S. Marte         PIT     55.46      -74
19      M. Holliday      STL     56          136
20      Y. Cespedes      OAK     68.46      -24
21      W. Myers         TB      69.85       0
22      J. Heyward       ATL     82.08       50
23      J. Hamilton      LAA     83.23      -16
24      B. Hamilton      CIN     85.15      -120
25      J. Werth         WAS     93.92       72
26      D. Brown         PHI     96.92       48
27      A. Gordon        KC      101.54     -68
28      C. Beltran       NYY     113.92      82
29      M. Cuddyer       COL     114.54      38
30      A. Soriano       NYY     115.38     -40
31      L. Martin        TEX     118.85     -44
32      S. Victorino     BOS     123.62     -16
33      D. Jennings      TB      129.15      64
34      C. Granderson    NYM     131.92     -48
35      C. Crisp         OAK     141.15      48
36      N. Cruz          FA      157         30
37      A. De Aza        CWS     163.77     -90
38      A. Jackson       DET     164.85      18
39      B. Gardner       NYY     170.85     -32
40      G. Springer      HOU     180.46      N/A
41      T. Hunter        DET     181.46      8
42      C. Crawford      LAD     184.08     -20
44      W. Venable       SD      192.62     -16
45      N. Aoki          KC      202         96
46      M. Bourn         CLE     202.15     -168
47      A. Garcia        CWS     203.23     -154
48      E. Young         NYM     206.15     -74
49      D. Fowler        HOU     209.31     -44
50      M. Brantley      CLE     214.69      36
51      A. Eaton         CWS     217.62     -30
52      B. Upton         ATL     219.92     -264
53      C. Carter        HOU     220.15     -44
54      M. Byrd          PHI     224.62      54
55      B. Revere        PHI     228        -78
56      K. Davis         MIL     231.46      26
57      A. Pagan         SF      243.62      158
58      C. Rasmus        TOR     245         20
59      J. Reddick       OAK     255.69      16
60      N. Markakis      BAL     258.92      20
61      K. Calhoun       LAA     259.23      60

The players with the top 10 QC scores are highlighted.

Best consistent value picks: There are some solid mid-round performers here, like Carlos Beltran (OF, NYY) (QC of 82) and Jason Werth (OF, WAS) (72). In the later rounds, target Kole Calhoun (OF, LAA) (60), Norichika Aoki (OF, MIL) (96) and 2013's QC King, Angel Pagan (OF, SF) (158).  Just don't pay for a repeat performance from Pagan.

Better suited for roto: Both Upton brothers' QC scores (-20 for Justin and -264 for B.J.) scream avoid. Somewhat surprisingly, Carlos Gonzalez's (OF, COL) -80 QC score, coupled with a score of 8 in 2012, suggest that he's not a great head-to-head team anchor. Jay Bruce's (OF, CIN) three-year QC scores of 0, 22 and -16 probably seems about right for those who have owned him, and he's too volatile to take in the early third round. Michael Bourn (OF, CLE) is another player whose three-year QC record of -98, -92 and -168 make him a head-to-head avoid.

Conclusion

When constructing your 2014 head-to-head team, apply a value-based QC draft strategy. By using mid and late round draft picks on consistent players, you can (1) balance out some of your team's more erratic performers, and (2) obtain an advantage over those teams in your league that are not focused on consistency in these rounds.

In Part II of our series we will focus on those players who could see their QC scores rise in 2014, and where to target them in your drafts. This will help expand your player pool of potential consistent draftees.

 

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  For more information about the terms used in this article, see our Glossary Primer.